AUD/USD ready to drop???
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD registered its seventh successive daily gain Tuesday. Notably, price engaged with waters just south of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied close by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
Additional buying, on the other hand, could land the candles at a supply base drawn from 0.6618/0.6544, with a 161.8% Fib ext. level just above at 0.6642.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
A harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, is firmly in play. Technicians will note additional Fibonacci studies present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420. Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is highly subjective. One method, however, may involve taking partial profit at a 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D.
H1 timeframe:
Amid a declining USD, the Australian dollar gleaned a favourable wind south of 0.64 on Tuesday, taking AUD/USD flow into supply at 0.6461/0.6435. What’s also noteworthy, from a technical standpoint, is price continues to compress within a reasonably large ascending channel from 0.5991/0.6207, though also notable is a smaller ascending channel forming from 0.6331/0.6409 as well as RSI bearish divergence.
Moves higher on this chart has the 0.65 handle in view.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price testing a 61.8% Fib retracement level at 0.6449, H4 price testing a Gartley formation and H1 price testing supply at 0.6461/0.6435 may be enough to halt the advance seen on the monthly timeframe towards supply at 0.7029/0.6664.
Traders looking to short the H4 Gartley formation, traditionally, locate protective stop-loss levels above the X point of the pattern.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD registered its seventh successive daily gain Tuesday. Notably, price engaged with waters just south of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied close by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
Additional buying, on the other hand, could land the candles at a supply base drawn from 0.6618/0.6544, with a 161.8% Fib ext. level just above at 0.6642.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
A harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, is firmly in play. Technicians will note additional Fibonacci studies present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420. Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is highly subjective. One method, however, may involve taking partial profit at a 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D.
H1 timeframe:
Amid a declining USD, the Australian dollar gleaned a favourable wind south of 0.64 on Tuesday, taking AUD/USD flow into supply at 0.6461/0.6435. What’s also noteworthy, from a technical standpoint, is price continues to compress within a reasonably large ascending channel from 0.5991/0.6207, though also notable is a smaller ascending channel forming from 0.6331/0.6409 as well as RSI bearish divergence.
Moves higher on this chart has the 0.65 handle in view.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price testing a 61.8% Fib retracement level at 0.6449, H4 price testing a Gartley formation and H1 price testing supply at 0.6461/0.6435 may be enough to halt the advance seen on the monthly timeframe towards supply at 0.7029/0.6664.
Traders looking to short the H4 Gartley formation, traditionally, locate protective stop-loss levels above the X point of the pattern.
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