AUDUSD - We Keep On Going?
Updated
I've published an analysis about the head and shoulder last week, which was looking really good on paper. It broke the neck line but then, it came back right in, looking more like a fake out than an actual break. I've collected something from the the neckline break but, I had to close before TP because of the strong reversal that happened last friday.
But anyway, that forced me to take back my technical analysis, and I've found more evidences in favor of a rebound of the aussie, conforting the fact that we might be facing a fakeout.
Technically we're still in an uptrend. Even though we've been falling lately, the uptrend's structure remains intact, and we should treat it for what it is.
The situation :
1) We're in an uptrend
2) We've experienced some weakness lately
3) Price just visited an imbalance area (look left)
4) Price is touching 2 major trendlines and seems like it's reacting to it
5) Last Daily candle is a bullish pinbar in an uptrend, last 2 H12 candles are making a bullish tweezer, last 3 H8 candles form a morning star
This one is a tricky one because, if we forget the head and shoulder, it's a clear buy, with strong candlestick formations at a clear level, so a long would be valid, but in the other hand, the price has retraced right to the neckline level, which is extremely precise in this situation. Price could still potentially break down and both scenarios could play out. But the favor goes for the rebound on the trendline because it is with the trend. If price was to break both trenline, we'd have a confirmation for a trend change, even if it was to go in a range for a while, but as is, we're in a uptrend.
I'll be watching this one until I get a clearer picture of what's going on. I'd like to have confirmation about whether or not price wants to stay under or above the neck line until I make a move
Cheers everyone and safe trading!!!
But anyway, that forced me to take back my technical analysis, and I've found more evidences in favor of a rebound of the aussie, conforting the fact that we might be facing a fakeout.
Technically we're still in an uptrend. Even though we've been falling lately, the uptrend's structure remains intact, and we should treat it for what it is.
The situation :
1) We're in an uptrend
2) We've experienced some weakness lately
3) Price just visited an imbalance area (look left)
4) Price is touching 2 major trendlines and seems like it's reacting to it
5) Last Daily candle is a bullish pinbar in an uptrend, last 2 H12 candles are making a bullish tweezer, last 3 H8 candles form a morning star
This one is a tricky one because, if we forget the head and shoulder, it's a clear buy, with strong candlestick formations at a clear level, so a long would be valid, but in the other hand, the price has retraced right to the neckline level, which is extremely precise in this situation. Price could still potentially break down and both scenarios could play out. But the favor goes for the rebound on the trendline because it is with the trend. If price was to break both trenline, we'd have a confirmation for a trend change, even if it was to go in a range for a while, but as is, we're in a uptrend.
I'll be watching this one until I get a clearer picture of what's going on. I'd like to have confirmation about whether or not price wants to stay under or above the neck line until I make a move
Cheers everyone and safe trading!!!
Comment
AUD was at crucial level, deciding if it wants to take the HnS down, of if it should bounce on the trendline, the thing being that, if it takes the HnS znd break both trendlines, then it might significate a trend shift, so let's be patient and see what it decides to do, we'll play according to it
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