AUDUSD a Good Short Entry Before the US CPI Data Release
Updated
Hello Traders,
I really like shorting the AUDUSD before the US CPI release, and here is why:
*The Fundamentals:
- GDP Growth: (AUD 0.5% / USD: 2.7%) is higher in the US.
- Inflation: (AUD: 7.8% / USD: 6.4%) is hotter in Australia than the US.
- Unemployment: (AUD: 3.7% / NZD: 3.6%)
- Interest Rates: (AUD: 3.60% / NZD: 4.75%) is higher in the US which is good for the USD.
The Fundamentals numbers are in the favor of the USD.
*Sentiment:
-COT Report: shows /64.9%/ of the institutional Future open contracts are long on the USD, while /37.8%/ are long on the AUD.
This favors the USD over the AUD.
- Retail Sentiment: 70% of retail traders are short, which is another good factor, because most of the time the crowd are on the wrong side of the move.
Technical:
The Price is in a good and healthy downtrend with lower lows and lower highs, made a retracement to the /0.618/ fib zone which shows a good resistance. This gives a good risk to reward ratio.
Although the DXY shows some weakness after the NFP last week with /3.6%/ unemployment rate, the AUD didn't show much strength against the dollar compared to the GBP, EUR or the NZD.
So If the CPI numbers today come in the favor of the dollar, AUD will show a big drawdown.
Trade Safe !
I really like shorting the AUDUSD before the US CPI release, and here is why:
*The Fundamentals:
- GDP Growth: (AUD 0.5% / USD: 2.7%) is higher in the US.
- Inflation: (AUD: 7.8% / USD: 6.4%) is hotter in Australia than the US.
- Unemployment: (AUD: 3.7% / NZD: 3.6%)
- Interest Rates: (AUD: 3.60% / NZD: 4.75%) is higher in the US which is good for the USD.
The Fundamentals numbers are in the favor of the USD.
*Sentiment:
-COT Report: shows /64.9%/ of the institutional Future open contracts are long on the USD, while /37.8%/ are long on the AUD.
This favors the USD over the AUD.
- Retail Sentiment: 70% of retail traders are short, which is another good factor, because most of the time the crowd are on the wrong side of the move.
Technical:
The Price is in a good and healthy downtrend with lower lows and lower highs, made a retracement to the /0.618/ fib zone which shows a good resistance. This gives a good risk to reward ratio.
Although the DXY shows some weakness after the NFP last week with /3.6%/ unemployment rate, the AUD didn't show much strength against the dollar compared to the GBP, EUR or the NZD.
So If the CPI numbers today come in the favor of the dollar, AUD will show a big drawdown.
Trade Safe !
Trade closed: stop reached
The stop loss reached but I see it another short opportunity from a better entry.Note
The price reached the stop loss, but I see it another short opportunity.Note
I entered another short trade
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