AUDUSD: Mixed Fundamental Bias in Dec2024
ABOUT GLOBAL LEI and GDP
1. During H2 of 2024, the Global LEI and GDP are INCREASING.
2. The AUD and USD pair was picked because their LEIs were in opposite direction.
3. Good Golbal GDP would mean we are in RISK-ON situation so good for AUD.
AUDUSD: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY
LEI DECREASING: AUD LEI are decreasing but USD LEI are increasing. Overal LEI BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD.
ENDO DECREASING: AUDUSD collective ENDO score is DECREASING from May24. This means AUD is weakening and USD is strengthening. ENDO BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD.
EXOs MIX INCREASING: EXOs of AUD are slowly IMPROVING but overall AUDUSD EXO Bias is MIX INCREASING mainly because of AUD GDP improvement and IR-Diff increase. EXO BULLISH BIAS FOR AUDUSD.
EXO+LEI DECREASING:
FINAL SCORE: BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD
COT REPORT ANALYSIS
As per overall COT analysis, GBBUSD is SHORT opportunity in Dec2024. BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD
AUDUSD: SEASONAL ANALYSIS
1. First week of DEC: 2-6 Dec: AUD is BULLISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence SIDEWAYS to BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD (Negative USD News expected)
2. 2nd to 3rd Week of DEC: 9-17 DEC: AUD is BEARISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD
3. 3rd to 4th Week of DEC: 18-31 DEC: AUD is BULLISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD
NEWS EVENTS
1.USD: ISM Manf PMI: 02-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4)
2.USD: ISM Services PMI: 04-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4)
3. USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks: 04-Dec-24 (10:45 PM GMT+4)
3. AUD: GDP q/q: 04-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4)
4. USD: Unemployment Rate: 06-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
5. AUD: Interest Rate News: 10-Dec-24 (7:30 AM GMT+4)
6. USD: CPI: 11-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
7. AUD: Unemployment Rate: 12-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4)
8. USD: PPI: 12-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
9. USD: Retails Sales: 17-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
10. USD: Interest Rate: 18-Dec-24 (11:00 PM GMT+4)
11. USD: Consumer Confidence: 23-Dec-24 (07:00 PM GMT+4)
15. USD: Unemployment Claims: 26-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
FUNDAMENTAL TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON AUDUSD - MIXED (Rely on Tech Analysis)
1. As per ENDOs and LEIs, BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD
2. As per EXOs BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD
3. "Summary 3 Score" also giving MIX BIAS indication.
4. Conditionaing Bias: Montly BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD.
5. COT Analysis: BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD
6. 1st Week of Dec SEASONALS: BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD.
FINAL BIAS: Because of MIXED Fundamental signals, reply on SEASONALITY and TECHNICAL BIAS, mapped with key news dates. The Interest Rate Announcements on 10th (AUD) and 18th (USD) will have a major impact on AUDUSD.
1. On 10th no change in AUD rate expected
2. On 18th, USD rate is expected to DECREASE, hence could be Bullish for AUDUSD
DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: BEARISH as per DOW.
DIVERGENCE: Strong BULLISH divergence, providing confluence with Fund Analysis for bullish reveral.
Volume Div: No
HEIKIN-ASHI: BEARISH confirmed till Weekly/Monthly support of 0.6360.
PATTERN: ABCD BULLISH Reversal Pattern seen with D point around strong support of 0.6360
FIB: N/A
S&R: Strong Weekly/Monthly support of 0.6360 and current price is 0.642. High probability that this support will be tested by the time USA Interest rate announcement and then BULLISH reversal could be seen.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement.
Scho-RSI: Heading downward signalling BEARISH movement till support of 0.6360.
DAILY TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation
BUY STOP: 0.645, SL: 0.62690,
TP1: 0.65255 (Around then FIB level 23.60%)
TP2: 0.66050 (Around then FIB level 38.20%)
4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: BEARISH as per DOW.
DIVERGENCE: BULLISH Div present but waiting to be played.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed.
FIB: Heading toward Fib Level 0 @ 0.63995
S&R: Support at 0.63995 and current price is 0.642. High probability that this Support will be broken and strong reveral will happen from 0.6360.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement.
Scho-RSI: Again turning down
4H TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation
BUY STOP: 0.642, SL: 0.62690,
TP1: 0.64316 (Around then FIB level 23.60%)
TP2: 0.6455 (Around then FIB level 38.20%)
1H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Strong BEARISH
DIVERGENCE: No, hence BEARISH moement will continue.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed.
FIB: BEARISH retracement happened from 38.2% and then bearish movement happening
S&R: Resistance at 0.6455 is respected arounf FIB lev el 38.2%.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement.
Scho-RSI: Below 20 and aslong as it will stay there, BEARISH movement is confirmed
1H TRADE PLAY: BEARISH BIAS
Entry: 0.64218, SL: 0.64593,
TP1: 0.6384, RR:1.14
TP2: 0.6347
1. During H2 of 2024, the Global LEI and GDP are INCREASING.
2. The AUD and USD pair was picked because their LEIs were in opposite direction.
3. Good Golbal GDP would mean we are in RISK-ON situation so good for AUD.
AUDUSD: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY
LEI DECREASING: AUD LEI are decreasing but USD LEI are increasing. Overal LEI BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD.
ENDO DECREASING: AUDUSD collective ENDO score is DECREASING from May24. This means AUD is weakening and USD is strengthening. ENDO BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD.
EXOs MIX INCREASING: EXOs of AUD are slowly IMPROVING but overall AUDUSD EXO Bias is MIX INCREASING mainly because of AUD GDP improvement and IR-Diff increase. EXO BULLISH BIAS FOR AUDUSD.
EXO+LEI DECREASING:
FINAL SCORE: BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD
COT REPORT ANALYSIS
As per overall COT analysis, GBBUSD is SHORT opportunity in Dec2024. BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD
AUDUSD: SEASONAL ANALYSIS
1. First week of DEC: 2-6 Dec: AUD is BULLISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence SIDEWAYS to BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD (Negative USD News expected)
2. 2nd to 3rd Week of DEC: 9-17 DEC: AUD is BEARISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD
3. 3rd to 4th Week of DEC: 18-31 DEC: AUD is BULLISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD
NEWS EVENTS
1.USD: ISM Manf PMI: 02-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4)
2.USD: ISM Services PMI: 04-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4)
3. USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks: 04-Dec-24 (10:45 PM GMT+4)
3. AUD: GDP q/q: 04-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4)
4. USD: Unemployment Rate: 06-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
5. AUD: Interest Rate News: 10-Dec-24 (7:30 AM GMT+4)
6. USD: CPI: 11-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
7. AUD: Unemployment Rate: 12-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4)
8. USD: PPI: 12-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
9. USD: Retails Sales: 17-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
10. USD: Interest Rate: 18-Dec-24 (11:00 PM GMT+4)
11. USD: Consumer Confidence: 23-Dec-24 (07:00 PM GMT+4)
15. USD: Unemployment Claims: 26-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
FUNDAMENTAL TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON AUDUSD - MIXED (Rely on Tech Analysis)
1. As per ENDOs and LEIs, BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD
2. As per EXOs BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD
3. "Summary 3 Score" also giving MIX BIAS indication.
4. Conditionaing Bias: Montly BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD.
5. COT Analysis: BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD
6. 1st Week of Dec SEASONALS: BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD.
FINAL BIAS: Because of MIXED Fundamental signals, reply on SEASONALITY and TECHNICAL BIAS, mapped with key news dates. The Interest Rate Announcements on 10th (AUD) and 18th (USD) will have a major impact on AUDUSD.
1. On 10th no change in AUD rate expected
2. On 18th, USD rate is expected to DECREASE, hence could be Bullish for AUDUSD
DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: BEARISH as per DOW.
DIVERGENCE: Strong BULLISH divergence, providing confluence with Fund Analysis for bullish reveral.
Volume Div: No
HEIKIN-ASHI: BEARISH confirmed till Weekly/Monthly support of 0.6360.
PATTERN: ABCD BULLISH Reversal Pattern seen with D point around strong support of 0.6360
FIB: N/A
S&R: Strong Weekly/Monthly support of 0.6360 and current price is 0.642. High probability that this support will be tested by the time USA Interest rate announcement and then BULLISH reversal could be seen.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement.
Scho-RSI: Heading downward signalling BEARISH movement till support of 0.6360.
DAILY TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation
BUY STOP: 0.645, SL: 0.62690,
TP1: 0.65255 (Around then FIB level 23.60%)
TP2: 0.66050 (Around then FIB level 38.20%)
4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: BEARISH as per DOW.
DIVERGENCE: BULLISH Div present but waiting to be played.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed.
FIB: Heading toward Fib Level 0 @ 0.63995
S&R: Support at 0.63995 and current price is 0.642. High probability that this Support will be broken and strong reveral will happen from 0.6360.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement.
Scho-RSI: Again turning down
4H TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation
BUY STOP: 0.642, SL: 0.62690,
TP1: 0.64316 (Around then FIB level 23.60%)
TP2: 0.6455 (Around then FIB level 38.20%)
1H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Strong BEARISH
DIVERGENCE: No, hence BEARISH moement will continue.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed.
FIB: BEARISH retracement happened from 38.2% and then bearish movement happening
S&R: Resistance at 0.6455 is respected arounf FIB lev el 38.2%.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement.
Scho-RSI: Below 20 and aslong as it will stay there, BEARISH movement is confirmed
1H TRADE PLAY: BEARISH BIAS
Entry: 0.64218, SL: 0.64593,
TP1: 0.6384, RR:1.14
TP2: 0.6347
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.