Technical picture going into Aussie data...
The Australian dollar retained its bullish tone Wednesday on the back of broad-based USD weakness, consequently recording a second consecutive daily gain. Although the H4 candles recently overthrew October’s opening level at 0.7229, resistance in the form of a 61.8% Fib resistance at 0.7250 is in play (positioned just south of an AB=CD [pink arrows] 127.2% bearish pattern at 0.7258).
According to weekly structure, further buying could be in store. This week has witnessed a test of its 2017 yearly opening level at 0.7199 (support), with scope to push towards the 2016 yearly opening base at 0.7282. Note this level is positioned ABOVE the current H4 resistances!
Daily price also recently found support just north of 0.7151 and its closely positioned channel resistance-turned support (taken from the high 0.8135). The next upside target on this scale falls in around 0.7304: a Quasimodo resistance level – again ABOVE the current H4 resistances.
Areas of consideration:
Having seen both weekly and daily structure indicate further buying could be observed, selling the H4 AB=CD 127.2% formation at 0.7258/61.8% H4 Fib resistance at 0.7250 is a chancy move, according to our technical studies.
Instead, focus now draws to possible longs on a retest of October’s opening level mentioned above at 0.7229 (retest preferably in the shape of a bullish candlestick formation as this helps provide entry/stop parameters), targeting the 2017 yearly opening level at 0.7282 on the weekly timeframe, followed by the daily Quasimodo resistance at 0.7304.
Today’s data points: Australian job’s data; RBA Assist Gov. Debelle speaks; US Retail sales m/m; Philly Fed manufacturing index; FOMC member Quarles speaks; Fed Chair Powell speaks; FOMC member Bostic speaks.
According to weekly structure, further buying could be in store. This week has witnessed a test of its 2017 yearly opening level at 0.7199 (support), with scope to push towards the 2016 yearly opening base at 0.7282. Note this level is positioned ABOVE the current H4 resistances!
Daily price also recently found support just north of 0.7151 and its closely positioned channel resistance-turned support (taken from the high 0.8135). The next upside target on this scale falls in around 0.7304: a Quasimodo resistance level – again ABOVE the current H4 resistances.
Areas of consideration:
Having seen both weekly and daily structure indicate further buying could be observed, selling the H4 AB=CD 127.2% formation at 0.7258/61.8% H4 Fib resistance at 0.7250 is a chancy move, according to our technical studies.
Instead, focus now draws to possible longs on a retest of October’s opening level mentioned above at 0.7229 (retest preferably in the shape of a bullish candlestick formation as this helps provide entry/stop parameters), targeting the 2017 yearly opening level at 0.7282 on the weekly timeframe, followed by the daily Quasimodo resistance at 0.7304.
Today’s data points: Australian job’s data; RBA Assist Gov. Debelle speaks; US Retail sales m/m; Philly Fed manufacturing index; FOMC member Quarles speaks; Fed Chair Powell speaks; FOMC member Bostic speaks.
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