AUD/USD swing trade setup
Updated
This AUD/USD pair could completed its correction already
Wave (1) = diagonal
Wave (2) = complex correction W-X-Y (expanded triangle)
Wave 1-2 (expanded flat completed last night 26/6/2024) of 3
If this wave count is valid, possible short term target (days-weeks) are
1) 0.68
2) 0.694
Price should not go lower than 0.664
If it goes lower than 0.658 -> this idea will be invalidated
Looking at DXY, this bullish idea may be possible
Note
I think the small wave 2 is completed. On the way to first target around 0.680
Note
Alright, so last night got stopped out.
Maybe this is most likely pattern/wave count here
with wave X is a complex combination.
Now this pair is likely forming its wave Y as a corrective pattern.
Could be an expanded flat. wave 2 waves remaining
or just a-b-c that will conclude around the 0.618 fib
If you want to trade breakout, wait until price break above 0.69
Note
If price go above 0.668, i think that is our confirmation
However, we have Core PCE today, be prepared for increased volatility.
Invalidation point remains the same at <0.658
Bullish confirmation at 0.69
Note
With DXY falling at the open this week, i think this support bullish scenario of all risk asset
Note
Shouldn't come below 0.663 now
on the way to first target around yellow channel
Note
Alright!
Note
Trade is working nicely!
Note
I'm not sure if we will see a small correction since this looks like first 5 wave is completed.
Be careful if you want to add to long position here
Look at DXY, I think it almost complete its 5 wave down, probably we will see it tonight.
Note
Price hit 1st target
I expect the trend to continue
Note
I think the wave 4 is a triangle, targeting 0.68350
with SL of 0.677
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