AUDUSD: UBS: The Fed will still be cautious and declare the need
Updated
UBS comments ahead of the December 12th and 13th FOMC meeting:
The Summary Economic Outlook (SEP), released at the same time as the December policy statement, says there will likely be at least one, and more likely two, rate cuts in 2024. .
While the market is happy with the FOMC's rate cuts, UBS expects the committee to be a little more cautious.
The cumulative rate cuts deemed appropriate by a majority of FOMC officials over the SEP's forecast period are expected to be approximately 250 basis points.
It's still too early to declare victory over inflation
Even if the FOMC cuts rates, the Fed is likely to continue warning that it is prepared to raise rates again if there is any doubt that inflation is falling.
The Summary Economic Outlook (SEP), released at the same time as the December policy statement, says there will likely be at least one, and more likely two, rate cuts in 2024. .
While the market is happy with the FOMC's rate cuts, UBS expects the committee to be a little more cautious.
The cumulative rate cuts deemed appropriate by a majority of FOMC officials over the SEP's forecast period are expected to be approximately 250 basis points.
It's still too early to declare victory over inflation
Even if the FOMC cuts rates, the Fed is likely to continue warning that it is prepared to raise rates again if there is any doubt that inflation is falling.
Note
💵AUDUSD SELL 0.6580- 0.6590💵✅TP1: 0.6560
✅TP2: 0.6540
❌SL: 0.6630
Note
HIT TP2 +50pipsNote
SELL AUDUSD 0.6600 - 0.6610🪙🪙🪙💲TP1 0.6570
💲TP2 0.6530
🔴 SL 0.6650
Note
HIT TP1 +60pipsNote
This week's consumer confidence index in Australia hit a 10-month highThe weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey came in at 80.8 this week compared to 76.4 last week. This is also the highest level since February until now.
Driven by the confidence of home owners
Confidence in the economy has improved
Inflation expectations are at the second lowest level in 6 months
However, about 80 points is still not a number worth celebrating.
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