AUDUSD Insight

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The dollar has strengthened as geopolitical risks in the Middle East have been highlighted by Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Beirut, Lebanon. Meanwhile, with the FOMC regular meeting taking place, uncertainty about future job prospects and a decrease in job postings reflect a cooling in the labor market, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in September. In this FOMC meeting, the market expects the Fed to maintain current rates and is keenly watching for any stance changes related to monetary policy.

There are reports that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates, and Vice Finance Minister Mimura has pointed out that the downsides of the yen's depreciation are becoming more pronounced. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain its current key interest rate longer, supported by high inflation and a strong labor market.

- The Fed's regular FOMC meeting will be held from July 30 to August 1.

- On July 31, the Q2 consumer price index of Australia, Japan's interest rate decision, and the July consumer price index of the Eurozone will be released.

- The Bank of England's interest rate decision will be announced on August 1.

- The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July and the unemployment rate for July will be announced on August 2.

The AUDUSD has broken below the 0.66000 line. As previously predicted, it is expected to continue its downward trend to the 0.64000 line, find support there, and then rise to the 0.69000 line, forming an uptrend. However, with many variables this week, there is a possibility of breaking the expected low, in which case we will consider the 0.62500 line as the bottom.

If the movements differ from our expectations, we will quickly adjust our strategy.

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