Long

Updated

AUDUSD ready to go up

Impulsive wave is now ending (if it did not already end).
This rally would be a corrective wave 2 or b.

Anyway, expect price to go up to .382 or .618 Fibonacci levels (0.76 to 0.78 cents).

Note

It's possible the wave count is off by one wave and price might fall to 0.71 with a terminal wave before finishing this bearish impulse wav.
So, be patient :)

Note

NZDUSD is playing out the same, so you can trade both pairs but due to correlation (except on surprise rate hike by one and not the other) I will trade both as one.
i.e, the lot size shall be divided equally between the two trades so that you don't risk twice as much if both fail.

Note

Note

My alternative count seems to be right as price is trying to push one last time lower.
But don't short just yet, wait for a pullback, even testing the (B)-(D) TL.
That would be a great entry, giving a nice Risk-Reward Ratio.

Beware, price needs to hold below 0.7459 to be a valid count.
Target(s) : 0.714 to 0.694

Note

Trade active

Price reversed as expected
Entry made at 0.7243 after price went past wave 1 high.
Added to position at 0.726.
SL moved to break-even at 7243
Half profit taken now at 7366.

Price might fall a little, so,re-enter en reversal.

USD is poised for a few months weakness now against EURO and commodities.

Note

Retracement slighly misplaced in previous chart.

Note

SMALL short trade launched as R/R is good enough
Entry : 7366
SL : 7390
Target : 7313 to 7292
(because corrective moves often stop around previous wave 4)
R/R : 1/2

Note

Can do same short trade for EURUSD and GBPUSD but they are correlated, so if one goes wrong, there is a high probability the others will also.

Trade active

Half profit taken at 0.7336, SL moved to break-even.

Wave B formed (finished i hope) and stopped 1pip before reaching my SL luckly.
added to the position again now, SL still at break-even.
Target 1 : 7336 (Use trailing SL once this target is hit)
Target 2 : 7318 to 7288 (let trailing stop getting you out, or close all at 7288)

Note

(modified stop)

Trade closed: stop reached

SL reached.
Nothing lost as we were on break even.
Overall : +30pips win.

Trade active

Alternative count suggesting a continuation of bullish move.
Entry : 0.7350
SL : 0.7330
Target : 0.7400
R/R : 2.5

Order cancelled

F*ck it, it's late and I'm exhausted. Pass this one.

Note

Well, it's a shame price hit the short trade SL.
Would had been a nice win.

Anyway, now we continue the long positions as long as price stays above 7202.
As said, august 21, add to position on reversal.

Wait for MA break before buying again.
SL last low.

Note

This got to long, it continues here.

AUDUSD - Long opportunnity with great R/R

ElliottWaveBelgium

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ElliottWaveBelgium