Interesting price movement visible on AUD/USD...
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, as well as June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a somewhat vulnerable tone at the moment, despite the base benefitting from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
After June 11 overpowered support at 0.6931, the base has proved reasonably worthy resistance throughout June, with last week modestly swinging lower from the base.
In case of a break to the upside, two trendline resistances inhabit territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671). Support at 0.6755 also remains in position to the downside, with a break throwing light on the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6664, a dynamic value in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Last Wednesday’s tumble proposes the prospect of a double-top pattern forming off 0.6977, with a neckline at 0.6807 (blue arrows).
However, breaking the neckline, albeit a bearish signal, entails overriding demand at 0.6773/0.6814, a familiar area boasting a connection with a 38.2% Fib level at 0.6808. The next demand area available south of here rests at 0.6695/0.6664 (prior supply).
H1 timeframe:
As you can see, Thursday began the process of developing a rising wedge pattern, built from 0.6847/0.6888 on the H1 timeframe. Friday, heading into US trade, witnessed downside gain speed. This, in addition to breaking the lower limit of the falling wedge and hitting the take-profit (yellow), saw price cross paths with trendline support (0.6776) and 0.6850 support.
Demand at 0.6813/0.6824 can be seen as the next accessible base of support under 0.6850, though the area is balancing on precarious ground given 0.68 could act as a magnet to price.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and its associated trendline resistance, in conjunction with daily resistance at 0.6931, may exert downside pressure this week.
Due to the above, daily support at 0.6755 could make a show.
Short term:
H4 demonstrates scope to drop into demand at 0.6773/0.6814, prompting a potential break of 0.6850 on the H1 to demand at 0.6813/0.6824 (located around the upper edge of H4 demand).
However, as highlighted above. H1 demand is susceptible to a whipsaw into 0.68.
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, as well as June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a somewhat vulnerable tone at the moment, despite the base benefitting from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
After June 11 overpowered support at 0.6931, the base has proved reasonably worthy resistance throughout June, with last week modestly swinging lower from the base.
In case of a break to the upside, two trendline resistances inhabit territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671). Support at 0.6755 also remains in position to the downside, with a break throwing light on the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6664, a dynamic value in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Last Wednesday’s tumble proposes the prospect of a double-top pattern forming off 0.6977, with a neckline at 0.6807 (blue arrows).
However, breaking the neckline, albeit a bearish signal, entails overriding demand at 0.6773/0.6814, a familiar area boasting a connection with a 38.2% Fib level at 0.6808. The next demand area available south of here rests at 0.6695/0.6664 (prior supply).
H1 timeframe:
As you can see, Thursday began the process of developing a rising wedge pattern, built from 0.6847/0.6888 on the H1 timeframe. Friday, heading into US trade, witnessed downside gain speed. This, in addition to breaking the lower limit of the falling wedge and hitting the take-profit (yellow), saw price cross paths with trendline support (0.6776) and 0.6850 support.
Demand at 0.6813/0.6824 can be seen as the next accessible base of support under 0.6850, though the area is balancing on precarious ground given 0.68 could act as a magnet to price.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and its associated trendline resistance, in conjunction with daily resistance at 0.6931, may exert downside pressure this week.
Due to the above, daily support at 0.6755 could make a show.
Short term:
H4 demonstrates scope to drop into demand at 0.6773/0.6814, prompting a potential break of 0.6850 on the H1 to demand at 0.6813/0.6824 (located around the upper edge of H4 demand).
However, as highlighted above. H1 demand is susceptible to a whipsaw into 0.68.
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