AUD/USD is currently holding just above the 0.6500 psychological level after retreating from the 0.6558 Fibonacci resistance (61.8% retracement of the October–April decline). Price action has recently broken beneath the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern—a traditionally bearish signal—raising the risk of deeper downside ahead.
The 50-day SMA (0.6498) and 200-day SMA (0.6399) are converging, with the former now acting as dynamic support following today’s bounce. However, momentum indicators offer limited bullish conviction: the RSI hovers near neutral at 51.5, and the MACD is flatlining just above zero, suggesting a pause in directional bias.
If bears push price back under 0.6500, the rising wedge breakdown could accelerate toward the 200-day SMA and potentially the horizontal support zone at 0.6178. On the flip side, a recovery above 0.6558 would invalidate the wedge and open the door for a run toward the 78.6% retracement near 0.6730.
Bias: Cautiously bearish while below 0.6558, especially if daily closes begin to settle under 0.6500. A loss of the 200-day SMA would confirm a trend reversal.
Time frame: Short- to medium-term (days to weeks)
-MW
The 50-day SMA (0.6498) and 200-day SMA (0.6399) are converging, with the former now acting as dynamic support following today’s bounce. However, momentum indicators offer limited bullish conviction: the RSI hovers near neutral at 51.5, and the MACD is flatlining just above zero, suggesting a pause in directional bias.
If bears push price back under 0.6500, the rising wedge breakdown could accelerate toward the 200-day SMA and potentially the horizontal support zone at 0.6178. On the flip side, a recovery above 0.6558 would invalidate the wedge and open the door for a run toward the 78.6% retracement near 0.6730.
Bias: Cautiously bearish while below 0.6558, especially if daily closes begin to settle under 0.6500. A loss of the 200-day SMA would confirm a trend reversal.
Time frame: Short- to medium-term (days to weeks)
-MW
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.