AUS200 (1H): Potential move north
Updated
This is a theory of curves setup (TOCS) ; looking at the price action of the AUS200.
In TOCS, thee is usually a 55% chance of movement in the leading half of the curve (based on personal experience). Better than 50% is good in finding entry points for trend following positions. Zoom into the chart if text overlaps candles.
The AUS200 has been curving up nicely. Of course charts don't obey these curves - that's why there is a remaining 45% chance of the setup failing.
There is no target for an exit point in trend following. So, entry is the big issue. Exit points are determined by the market when price moves threw a trailing stop on a lower time frame. There is no prescription as to how to work that out because it depends on the price action in a lower timeframe. It is no possible to know that until if happens.
What's in favour of a north side attempt? Always look higher e.g. the daily time frame where the RSI is in a deep trough and which will appear attractive to 'punters'.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
In TOCS, thee is usually a 55% chance of movement in the leading half of the curve (based on personal experience). Better than 50% is good in finding entry points for trend following positions. Zoom into the chart if text overlaps candles.
The AUS200 has been curving up nicely. Of course charts don't obey these curves - that's why there is a remaining 45% chance of the setup failing.
There is no target for an exit point in trend following. So, entry is the big issue. Exit points are determined by the market when price moves threw a trailing stop on a lower time frame. There is no prescription as to how to work that out because it depends on the price action in a lower timeframe. It is no possible to know that until if happens.
What's in favour of a north side attempt? Always look higher e.g. the daily time frame where the RSI is in a deep trough and which will appear attractive to 'punters'.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Note
Update: Price action in lower time frames weren't great but a few pips collected. With USTECH and the DJI doing a wobbly this earlier today, this may add bearish pressure to all markets.
The technicals may look good but the fundamentals aren't good.
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