Avalanche to tumble southward as the downtrend persists
Updated
The daily and 4-hour price charts of Avalanche showed the bears were highly likely to drive prices lower, especially after the move below $13.88 on 5 June.
The higher timeframe charts showed that the mid-April rally failed to break key highs.
This was followed by a downtrend in May, but the $13.8 area posed some opposition to the sellers.
Avalanche had a bearish bias on the price charts. It is the fifth largest blockchain in terms of TVL but its DeFi activity stagnated in recent months. In other news, SushiSwap announced the launch of their v3 suite of products on Avalanche.
The price action presented short sellers with an opportunity. The structure was bearish, but the volatility has been high over the past 48 hours despite seller dominance. If the prices fall beneath $13.5, it would represent a continuation of the downtrend.
The market structure was bearish on the daily timeframe, and a downtrend was in progress. The 4-hour chart also showed a downtrend in progress. In May, the price formed a series of lower highs and lower lows.
The $13.88 level served as support, but AVAX still formed a low at $13.71 on 25 May. On 5 June, the price fell to $13.48, showing that bears remained dominant. Despite the bounce to $14.6 on 7 June, the market structure remained bearish.
Monday’s move was used to plot a set of Fibonacci retracement levels (pale yellow). It showed the 78.6% retracement level at $14.62, which explained the inability of the bulls to drive prices higher. Having established the bearish character of the market, a short trade can be entered upon a retest of the 50% retracement level at $14.21.
The 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci extension levels at $13.14 and $12.58 can be used to book profits. A move by AVAX above $14.93 would invalidate this idea as it represents a key short-term lower high.
It has been noted that the prices bounced to the $14.62 level on Wednesday. Despite that, the spot CVD continued to decline. Over the past 24 hours, the metric was flat, this showed buyers were in the minority and selling pressure was overwhelming.
The Open Interest picked up a little, amounting to close to $10 million. However, when AVAX faced rejection at $14.6, the open interest dropped further. This development hinted at discouraged bulls. Overall, the bearish sentiment was prevalent both on the low and high timeframes.
The higher timeframe charts showed that the mid-April rally failed to break key highs.
This was followed by a downtrend in May, but the $13.8 area posed some opposition to the sellers.
Avalanche had a bearish bias on the price charts. It is the fifth largest blockchain in terms of TVL but its DeFi activity stagnated in recent months. In other news, SushiSwap announced the launch of their v3 suite of products on Avalanche.
The price action presented short sellers with an opportunity. The structure was bearish, but the volatility has been high over the past 48 hours despite seller dominance. If the prices fall beneath $13.5, it would represent a continuation of the downtrend.
The market structure was bearish on the daily timeframe, and a downtrend was in progress. The 4-hour chart also showed a downtrend in progress. In May, the price formed a series of lower highs and lower lows.
The $13.88 level served as support, but AVAX still formed a low at $13.71 on 25 May. On 5 June, the price fell to $13.48, showing that bears remained dominant. Despite the bounce to $14.6 on 7 June, the market structure remained bearish.
Monday’s move was used to plot a set of Fibonacci retracement levels (pale yellow). It showed the 78.6% retracement level at $14.62, which explained the inability of the bulls to drive prices higher. Having established the bearish character of the market, a short trade can be entered upon a retest of the 50% retracement level at $14.21.
The 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci extension levels at $13.14 and $12.58 can be used to book profits. A move by AVAX above $14.93 would invalidate this idea as it represents a key short-term lower high.
It has been noted that the prices bounced to the $14.62 level on Wednesday. Despite that, the spot CVD continued to decline. Over the past 24 hours, the metric was flat, this showed buyers were in the minority and selling pressure was overwhelming.
The Open Interest picked up a little, amounting to close to $10 million. However, when AVAX faced rejection at $14.6, the open interest dropped further. This development hinted at discouraged bulls. Overall, the bearish sentiment was prevalent both on the low and high timeframes.
Note
Note
BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple BattlesBTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above 26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to 28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past 27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward 24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at 23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the 24.2k-24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the 22.4k and 21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at 27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.