Break down on technicals for Alibaba near historical lows
Updated
Hi Guys. As always, heres a macro chart setup i've found to be a MUST WATCH, at the very least if not a potential long.
Analysis done on 1 week, indicating a macro analysis.
Alibaba (BABA), at current prices is roughly 75% from its blow off top in 2020.
Around October- November 2022, we tested support at the historical bottom and bounced to test the Resistance zone with a REJECTION.
Bringing us to our current price action where we have managed to maintain a HIGHER LOW.
This supports the idea that perhaps trend is shifting towards BABA wanting to move UP.
Notice also the Blue, Green and Purple Moving averages, Flattening out. This can be an indication that price is showing demand after moving averages moved down so much from the highs.
look for curve up in MA with crosses happening. This would be significantly supportive of probabilities we see Uptrend.
Essentially the order from top to bttom we want to see is:
1. Purple on top
2. Green next
3. Blue below that
4. Red below all
This is an indication of a Bull cycle. As you can see blatantly in previous history.
Notice also Volume which has been steadily increasing since 2019. Maintainence of Higher lows on Volume is also a good sign, that perhaps BABA may rally if we continue this volume trend.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on BABA in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Analysis done on 1 week, indicating a macro analysis.
Alibaba (BABA), at current prices is roughly 75% from its blow off top in 2020.
Around October- November 2022, we tested support at the historical bottom and bounced to test the Resistance zone with a REJECTION.
Bringing us to our current price action where we have managed to maintain a HIGHER LOW.
This supports the idea that perhaps trend is shifting towards BABA wanting to move UP.
Notice also the Blue, Green and Purple Moving averages, Flattening out. This can be an indication that price is showing demand after moving averages moved down so much from the highs.
look for curve up in MA with crosses happening. This would be significantly supportive of probabilities we see Uptrend.
Essentially the order from top to bttom we want to see is:
1. Purple on top
2. Green next
3. Blue below that
4. Red below all
This is an indication of a Bull cycle. As you can see blatantly in previous history.
Notice also Volume which has been steadily increasing since 2019. Maintainence of Higher lows on Volume is also a good sign, that perhaps BABA may rally if we continue this volume trend.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on BABA in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Note
A zoom in on the 1 week.
Notice how our last weeks candle has moved ABOVE 21 EMA and has broken up past the Resistance trendline pushing us down since January 2023.
This week will be crucial to see whether or not we confirm this breakout and support on 21 EMA.
If we manage to start moving up and confirm support on Moving averages ABOVE us, expect Golden crosses to occur and cascading bullish momentum to pour in.
REMEMBER without confirmation this move is still not fully developed. We must wait till end of week friday. There is always chances for fakeouts to occur so stay vigilant. Continue to observe.
Stay tuned, ill be putting up more supportive evidence of the potential for BABA. Look for indicator updates and other developments as markets move.
Note
1 indicator i like using to assess MAJOR moves is the MACD.
So here what im trying to show is that a key lvl on the MACD is the 0 level.
So anytime the Blue & Orange Lines of the MACD Cross ABOVE the 0 lvl, this normally signals Massive Bullish rallies.
We have not been able to recreate this Bullish pattern in MACD since March 2021.
We have though recently Crossed Bullish and attempting to Move towards the 0 lvl. It is important to observe in the coming weeks what happens with the MACD.
Note
Just wanted to share a thought. Assets that set bottoms that have large market caps normally tend to grind up slow. Don't expect like a 100% rally in BABA in a week smashing through resistance. HIghly probable we don't see that type of action. Passing consolidation ranges take ALOT of work, require alot of Demand, Volume and Momentum.Note
ALibaba on 1 week timeframe.
We have confirmed a breakout Above Resistance trendline.
Note, after breakouts price sometimes does come back to test support on the broken resistance trendline. Do keep that in mind.
HOwever as of now, it was a decisive and strong move UP.
We are now ABOVE both 21 EMA and 50 SMA
If we maintain ABOVE both the moving averages, itll eventually lead to a Golden Cross.
Which could change sentiment and start a larger rally.
My target would be the $120.00 lvl.
We could also be creating a range between the recent lows of $57 to $120.
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