Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
I’ve revamped my charting style to stand out from the crowd.
Let’s dive into today’s analysis, focusing on Alibaba (BABA).
Weekly Chart Overview
Chart Link:
Looking at Alibaba’s weekly chart, its history is relatively short, dating back to 2014. The price action highlights distinct supply and demand zones:
Blue and Red Boxes: These zones reflect similar supply ranges, spanning approximately $58 to $125. The price has historically oscillated within this range, providing up to 120% movements from the lows.
Orange Box: This zone formed after a breakout from previous ranges during a strong upward rally. While minor supply zones were created during the rally, the subsequent downtrend exhibited a one-way decline, consolidating the entire range into a single supply zone.
Range: $138 to $318, representing roughly 130% from the lower boundary.
Long-Term Resistance Trendline
Chart Link:
Plotting Alibaba’s long-term descending resistance trendline reveals key insights:
Recent Rejection: Alibaba encountered resistance at this trendline in late September 2024, leading to a 30% correction from its peak.
Red Box Supply Zone: The price is now trading below the weekly 20 EMA and 60 EMA, with a potential death cross forming.
Downward Potential: Should this bearish setup play out, the price could decline toward the support zone near the Yellow Box, around $75.
When to Buy Alibaba?
Chart Link:
Identifying optimal buy zones for Alibaba:
If the Price Declines Further:
First Buy Zone: Yellow Box ($75)
This zone aligns with the ascending trendline established since October 2022.
The pattern resembles a pennant, suggesting a potential rebound from this area as the trendline provides support.
Second Buy Zone: Green Box ($58)
This level represents a historical low, with prior rebounds of up to 110%.
Should the price revisit this area, it would present a strong buying opportunity.
Below $58
If the price falls below $58, the downside is highly uncertain, and further declines are unpredictable. In such a scenario, cautious observation is advised.
If the Price Rises:
First Entry: Breakout of the Red Box Resistance Trendline
Based on the current trajectory, a breakout above this descending trendline may not occur until 2026, given the prolonged consolidation phase.
Second Entry: Breakout Above $103
This level aligns with historical resistance from the Orange Box.
A breakout here could yield a potential 20% gain, targeting the upper boundary of the supply zone near $126.
Third Entry: Sustained Breakout Above $125–$138
Breaking above this range would signal a recovery, opening the door for a potential rally toward previous highs.
Conclusion
Alibaba’s stock presents a unique mix of opportunities and risks:
Bearish Outlook: The stock is currently in a downtrend, trading below key moving averages, with further declines likely if the $75 support fails.
Bullish Outlook: Strategic buy levels at $75 and $58 offer strong opportunities for long-term investors, while breakouts above $103 and $138 provide momentum-driven trade setups.
Patience is key when navigating Alibaba’s volatile price action. Let’s trade smart and stay prepared for both opportunities and risks. 🚀
I’ve revamped my charting style to stand out from the crowd.
Let’s dive into today’s analysis, focusing on Alibaba (BABA).
Weekly Chart Overview
Chart Link:
Looking at Alibaba’s weekly chart, its history is relatively short, dating back to 2014. The price action highlights distinct supply and demand zones:
Blue and Red Boxes: These zones reflect similar supply ranges, spanning approximately $58 to $125. The price has historically oscillated within this range, providing up to 120% movements from the lows.
Orange Box: This zone formed after a breakout from previous ranges during a strong upward rally. While minor supply zones were created during the rally, the subsequent downtrend exhibited a one-way decline, consolidating the entire range into a single supply zone.
Range: $138 to $318, representing roughly 130% from the lower boundary.
Long-Term Resistance Trendline
Chart Link:
Plotting Alibaba’s long-term descending resistance trendline reveals key insights:
Recent Rejection: Alibaba encountered resistance at this trendline in late September 2024, leading to a 30% correction from its peak.
Red Box Supply Zone: The price is now trading below the weekly 20 EMA and 60 EMA, with a potential death cross forming.
Downward Potential: Should this bearish setup play out, the price could decline toward the support zone near the Yellow Box, around $75.
When to Buy Alibaba?
Chart Link:
Identifying optimal buy zones for Alibaba:
If the Price Declines Further:
First Buy Zone: Yellow Box ($75)
This zone aligns with the ascending trendline established since October 2022.
The pattern resembles a pennant, suggesting a potential rebound from this area as the trendline provides support.
Second Buy Zone: Green Box ($58)
This level represents a historical low, with prior rebounds of up to 110%.
Should the price revisit this area, it would present a strong buying opportunity.
Below $58
If the price falls below $58, the downside is highly uncertain, and further declines are unpredictable. In such a scenario, cautious observation is advised.
If the Price Rises:
First Entry: Breakout of the Red Box Resistance Trendline
Based on the current trajectory, a breakout above this descending trendline may not occur until 2026, given the prolonged consolidation phase.
Second Entry: Breakout Above $103
This level aligns with historical resistance from the Orange Box.
A breakout here could yield a potential 20% gain, targeting the upper boundary of the supply zone near $126.
Third Entry: Sustained Breakout Above $125–$138
Breaking above this range would signal a recovery, opening the door for a potential rally toward previous highs.
Conclusion
Alibaba’s stock presents a unique mix of opportunities and risks:
Bearish Outlook: The stock is currently in a downtrend, trading below key moving averages, with further declines likely if the $75 support fails.
Bullish Outlook: Strategic buy levels at $75 and $58 offer strong opportunities for long-term investors, while breakouts above $103 and $138 provide momentum-driven trade setups.
Patience is key when navigating Alibaba’s volatile price action. Let’s trade smart and stay prepared for both opportunities and risks. 🚀
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.