BABA's New thread of some TA & updating older ideas.!

Updated

1/Still no "Touch down"@ support lines RSI & Price "Green lines)
2/@(-68%) only 2ed to July 2015@(-73%)
3/+45% after W get a trough, if we do not have it already.!
4/This analysis is basically wrong

-Ever probable, applicable & else absolute

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Updating three ideas in one idea...

Three major resistances as obstacles.!
1/ Below .236 Fibs line.!
2/ Below a major resistances line.!
3/ Below a broken channel .!

* Premarket suggest we will open above 2 of these already, bulls wat it to hold big time.!

-Ever probable, applicable & else absolute

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For the "Bears"...

If you believe that we are going to crash again against everything out there for baba technically and fundamentally then this "Bearish" scenario is for you. It is still valid but according to our past ideas is a long shot "Unlikely" unless something globally happen. Otherwise, we are in the final stages of a "Trough making" and we are so so overextended.

- Or this analysis is basically wrong

-Ever probable, applicable & else absolute

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AMZN/BABA

This is THE most ever overextended ratio between AMZN & BABA look at the deviation between the 2 stocks. Or this is irrelevant .!

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@ 2.42 Never seen before.!

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For the bulls, once we have our long expected trough to be confirmed we should see at least something like this on the chart.!

- Or this analysis is basically wrong

-Ever probable, applicable & else absolute

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Updating...

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Q: Is baba forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders
A:Investopedia:"This chart pattern formation is commonly used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of a downtrend"
* Right & left shoulder are not symmetrical

Left Shoulder: After a downtrend, the price of the
respective asset makes a low and then rallies to a
higher point, forming the left shoulder.
Head: Following the formation of the left
shoulder, the price declines to a point lower than
the left shoulder and then rallies again, forming
the head.
Right Shoulder: Finally, the price declines again
but not as low as the previous decline or the head,
and then rallies one more time, forming the right
shoulder. The right shoulder is typically roughly
equal in depth to the left shoulder.

Neckline: A trendline is drawn connecting the high
points (or "peaks") after the formation of each
shoulder and the head. This line serves as a level
of resistance that the price must break through to
confirm the pattern.

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Q: Is BABA forming 1 of these or not?
A: Investopedia: "Types of Triangle Chart Patterns The following diagram shows the 3 basic types of triangle chart patterns the ascending, descending, and symmetrical triangles."

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" Ascending Triangle
An ascending triangle is a breakout pattern that forms when the price breaches the upper horizontal trendline with rising volume. It is a bullish formation.

The upper trendline must be horizontal, indicating nearly identical highs, which form a resistance level. The lower trendline is rising diagonally, indicating higher lows as buyers patiently step up their bids. "

Buyers eventually lose patience and rush into the security above the resistance price, which triggers more buying as the uptrend resumes. The upper trendline, which was formerly a resistance level, now becomes support.

Descending Triangle
A descending triangle is an inverted version of the ascending triangle and is considered a breakdown pattern. The lower trendline should be horizontal, connecting near identical lows. The upper trendline declines diagonally toward the apex.

The breakdown occurs when the price collapses through the lower horizontal trendline support as a downtrend resumes. The lower trendline, which was support, now becomes resistance.

Symmetrical Triangle
A symmetrical triangle is composed of a diagonal falling upper trendline and a diagonally rising lower trendline. As the price moves toward the apex, it will inevitably breach the upper trendline for a breakout and uptrend on rising prices or breach the lower trendline forming a breakdown and downtrend with falling prices.

Traders should watch for a volume spike and at least two closes beyond the trendline to confirm the break is valid and not a head fake. Symmetrical triangles tend to be continuation break patterns, which means they tend to break in the direction of the initial move before the triangle forms. So if an uptrend precedes a symmetrical triangle, traders would expect the price to break to the upside.

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Is baba forming an ABCD bullish pattern ?

The ABCD pattern (AB=CD) is one of the classic chart patterns which is repeated over and over again. The ABCD pattern shows perfect harmony between price and time and is also referred to as ‘measured moves’. It was developed by Scott Carney and Larry Pesavento after being originally discovered by H.M Gartley

Within the ABCD patterns, there are 3 types as mentioned below.

1/ Price and Time: Under this type of ABCD pattern the amount of distance and the time it takes for price to travel from A to B is equal to the time and distance from C to D
2/ Classic ABCD: In this pattern, the BC is a retracement of 61.8% – 78.6% of AB, with CD being the extension leg of 127.2% to 161.8% (equal in price distance)
3/ ABCD extension: CD leg is an extension of AB between 127.2% – 161.8%

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All else absolute out there in the world The life time for this technical Pattern (Regardless of it's name) is 4 Months July 2024 W shall breakout-breakdown The range is 52%-109%, that's up-down depending on the move

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Seasonality is our tail wind here till September.!

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One way to look at it out of many this is wave 4 complex we still got another 5th wave down after we reach 81-82. Or not and this is wrong.!

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Updating...
W% W% adjusted for 40 Days is at it's lowest ever with (-12%) already, the max with much higher print was (-29%).!

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For all its worth...
-10th Time, since 2023 alone, already to play chicken with this "Major" trend line.!
-Max < this RED line was (-25%) During August-September 2015
*Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute

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Four Defenders VS four attackers .!

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2015 Vs 2024 Something is not adding up... Or this is a different time & a different move.!

* Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute

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Are we forming a Pennant on BABA ?
It's a continuation pattern & form when there is a large movement in a security, known as the flagpole.
Consolidation should have 👇volume & the breakouts should occur on 👆 volume

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Q:Are we forming a rising wedge ?
A. Yes / No
B. This is wrong.

*Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute

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Green is the alternative or the Main...

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Updating the Wedge, Red count.!

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Updating the "channel", Green count.!

-Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute

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I have exited all my long positions .!

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Earnings is too risky to trade.!

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Just to be clear some elliottsion are suggesting +$120 targets in few months.1

samitrading

I do more in depth studies of stocks on my twitter account. Hope you would enjoy it there as you are enjoying it here.

****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***

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