Hey BAT, It's Been A While!
Updated
BAT is one of the cryptocurrencies I've been covering over the last several months. It's also one of the coins I've successfully traded. One of my best calls to date is timing the breakout perfectly from 3700 all the way towards 10000. I don't trade too often (I mostly just enjoy analyzing the market because it's so interesting), but if you've been following me, you'll know that I traded in and out of BAT during that parabolic rise to increase my ETH. I did this alongside ENG, and successfully increased my ETH by 30%. I'm glad I took my profits and left those positions entirely, because since then BAT and ENG have performed poorly against ETH (and the entire market, for that matter). I prefer quality to quantity when it comes to short term trades. When you enter a trade, it's important to be able to differentiate between a long term trade and a short term trade, and commit to one or the other. Otherwise, you'll probably be left holding heavy bags.
Anyway, in my last BAT analysis, I said it looked like it was very possible for it to head back towards the 3K sat area. This was because on the chart it did exactly what XLM did last fall - it broke out of its triangle and long term diagonal resistance (light blue and orange), only to be unable to sustain the higher ratio, resulting in a crash back down below the resistance level. This is objectively a bearish development in the chart.
Here is the previous analysis where I suggested some further downside:
The good thing is, BAT has been able to look healthy against the USD, maintaining above $0.30 and still performing better than a lot of other alts since January (300% up since the $0.10 bottom - its recent high was a 500% increase). Right now, it's just consolidating. This analysis is about the Bitcoin ratio, however.
Here's the USD chart with a possible ascending triangle. It should be noted that a lot of alts are forming similar patterns, though some look objectively worse.
This is a neutral post because I think BAT could go either way in the short term, against Bitcoin. Long term, BAT is clearly range bound. When I've talked about this to people who are bullish on BAT, they get annoyed...but this is just what the chart is showing us. It is a clear trader's coin until it starts showing some long term price appreciation. Due to this market behavior, there IS possibility for severe downside against BTC. If BAT follows in the footsteps of XLM, it could break down below the triangle resistance (light blue) and head all the way towards the 1K sat area - a zone it hasn't tested for quite some time. If BAT is truly a range-bound asset, and 1000 is the absolute bottom of the range, it really could test that zone before moving back up towards the top of the range (9000-10000). A lot of alts are currently either testing long term supports against Bitcoin or heading to new lows. Clearly the trend (for now) is that people are more ready to buy Bitcoin. It's not necessarily that people are selling alts for Bitcoin at this point. The large amount of money flowing into Bitcoin is just not flowing into alts at this time. Alts are slowly rising though, which is encouraging. If this trend is eventually going to move in favor of alts, I speculate that the first to move will be those in the top 10 (particularly XRP and ETH, as they have the most liquidity). Alts like BAT could take a little while longer.
On the bullish side, BAT could continue to bounce here and head up towards the orange resistance (around 5200). If that falls, BAT could head all the way up again to test the top of the range. Still, BAT has been unable to sustain higher prices within the range. Until that changes, I don't see BAT as a long term play.
This is not financial advice. Not even really a potential trade setup. Just an objective analysis on BAT, based on what I've been seeing. I want to continue keeping track of this one, because it can make some pretty predictable (and profitable) moves. This is for educational and speculative purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Anyway, in my last BAT analysis, I said it looked like it was very possible for it to head back towards the 3K sat area. This was because on the chart it did exactly what XLM did last fall - it broke out of its triangle and long term diagonal resistance (light blue and orange), only to be unable to sustain the higher ratio, resulting in a crash back down below the resistance level. This is objectively a bearish development in the chart.
Here is the previous analysis where I suggested some further downside:
The good thing is, BAT has been able to look healthy against the USD, maintaining above $0.30 and still performing better than a lot of other alts since January (300% up since the $0.10 bottom - its recent high was a 500% increase). Right now, it's just consolidating. This analysis is about the Bitcoin ratio, however.
Here's the USD chart with a possible ascending triangle. It should be noted that a lot of alts are forming similar patterns, though some look objectively worse.
This is a neutral post because I think BAT could go either way in the short term, against Bitcoin. Long term, BAT is clearly range bound. When I've talked about this to people who are bullish on BAT, they get annoyed...but this is just what the chart is showing us. It is a clear trader's coin until it starts showing some long term price appreciation. Due to this market behavior, there IS possibility for severe downside against BTC. If BAT follows in the footsteps of XLM, it could break down below the triangle resistance (light blue) and head all the way towards the 1K sat area - a zone it hasn't tested for quite some time. If BAT is truly a range-bound asset, and 1000 is the absolute bottom of the range, it really could test that zone before moving back up towards the top of the range (9000-10000). A lot of alts are currently either testing long term supports against Bitcoin or heading to new lows. Clearly the trend (for now) is that people are more ready to buy Bitcoin. It's not necessarily that people are selling alts for Bitcoin at this point. The large amount of money flowing into Bitcoin is just not flowing into alts at this time. Alts are slowly rising though, which is encouraging. If this trend is eventually going to move in favor of alts, I speculate that the first to move will be those in the top 10 (particularly XRP and ETH, as they have the most liquidity). Alts like BAT could take a little while longer.
On the bullish side, BAT could continue to bounce here and head up towards the orange resistance (around 5200). If that falls, BAT could head all the way up again to test the top of the range. Still, BAT has been unable to sustain higher prices within the range. Until that changes, I don't see BAT as a long term play.
This is not financial advice. Not even really a potential trade setup. Just an objective analysis on BAT, based on what I've been seeing. I want to continue keeping track of this one, because it can make some pretty predictable (and profitable) moves. This is for educational and speculative purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Welp, there it goes. If the next weekly candle can't get back above the pennant resistance, much lower prices for BATBTC will become much more likely. 
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