I’m tracking price as it retraces into the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone, where I expect a potential base to form. With declining volume confirming the pullback is losing momentum, I’ll look for a clear basing pattern or double-bottom on lower timeframes before entering long. If confirmed, the plan is to position for a continuation move back toward previous highs.
Trade active
Update:Price has responded to the 0.5–0.618 retracement zone as anticipated, showing initial signs of support and a short-term bounce from this area. RSI has recovered from oversold back to neutral, but volume remains subdued, suggesting the market is still in the process of forming a base.
At this stage, I’m monitoring for confirmation of accumulation- specifically, a higher low or a period of consolidation above $6.27. A sustained move and close above $7.00, ideally supported by an uptick in volume, would provide confirmation for a potential continuation toward $7.50 and above.
Downside invalidation is set below $5.69; a decisive break of this level would negate the setup and prompt a reassessment.
No position until structure confirms. Remaining patient and focused on price development within the identified zone.
Note
Midday Update:Price has moved above the $7.00 level, testing short-term resistance at the 0.382 retracement. While there’s been a constructive bounce from the identified continuation re-entry zone, overall volume remains muted and there’s no clear evidence of strong initiative buying at these levels. RSI sits in neutral territory, reflecting a lack of momentum extremes.
Broader market sentiment, as observed in (NQ), is currently neutral to cautious. Despite early strength, buyers have not pressed session highs, and options activity suggests a defensive tone rather than directional conviction. This backdrop could limit near-term upside follow-through unless there is a clear shift in market participation.
Given these conditions, I remain focused on confirmation of a sustained base above $7.00 and would prefer to see broader market strength or a decisive uptick in volume before increasing exposure. Failure to hold above $6.85 or a return to the lower support zone would indicate that further consolidation is needed.
No change to the plan: maintaining a patient, process-driven approach and allowing price action- within both the stock and the broader market to dictate timing for any new positions.
Note
End of RTH Update:Price held above the $7.00 level throughout the session, settling near $7.10 and maintaining above the 0.382 retracement ($6.85). The overall tone was constructive: there was no significant supply pressure, and RSI drifted up to 56 on the hourly, but volume remained muted, consistent with a market still in the process of base formation.
From a broader perspective, market sentiment remains neutral to cautious mirrored in Nasdaq futures, where intraday moves failed to gain strong directional follow through. This subdued backdrop is further reflected in the BBAI options chain: positioning is concentrated in at-the-money and slightly out-of-the-money strikes for both calls and puts, but there is no evidence of aggressive speculation or one-sided conviction. Put activity is marginally elevated, likely reflecting hedging rather than outright bearish bets, while call buyers are not reaching for higher strikes.
Taken together, the current options flow is consistent with the ongoing price consolidation and a lack of commitment from either side. Upside confirmation would require not just price holding above $7.10 with a volume expansion, but also a visible shift in options activity toward higher call strikes- particularly at or above $7.50. Conversely, a rotation of open interest and volume into lower strike puts, or a breakdown below $6.85 with expanding volume, would signal further base building or downside risk.
In summary:
The setup remains unchanged. The market is seeking resolution, with neither buyers nor sellers exerting control. I remain patient, monitoring for clear evidence of accumulation- both in the underlying price action and in options flow before considering additional exposure. Downside invalidation remains below $6.27.
Note
Update – July 16, 2025 (Midday)Price continues to consolidate just above the $7.10 level, holding above the 0.382 retracement ($6.85) and showing stability after the recent bounce from the mapped continuation re-entry zone. Intraday price action is steady, with minor higher lows forming on both the 5 minute and 15 minute charts. Hourly RSI remains constructive at 56, and intraday readings are holding in the low 50s, indicating a healthy pause with no immediate sign of momentum exhaustion. Volume is light and continues to contract, reflecting the absence of initiative participation from either buyers or sellers.
Options flow remains balanced:
Open interest and volume are concentrated at the $7.00 and $7.50 strikes across near term expiries. There’s no evidence of aggressive call buying for a breakout or heavy put accumulation for downside protection- premiums are stable, and spreads remain tight. This options posture is consistent with a market in equilibrium, waiting for new information or a catalyst before taking directional risk.
Broader market sentiment (NQ):
Nasdaq futures are likewise consolidating after a modest morning rally. RSI is neutral on the daily and approaching short-term overbought levels on the 5 minute, but there is no sign of initiative buying or forced selling. The NQ options chain shows similar neutrality- open interest is clustered at the money, and there is no major skew in calls or puts. The macro tape is in a “pause” phase- reinforcing the lack of urgency in the underlying BBAI price action.
Conclusion & Action Plan:
The current setup for BBAI remains unchanged. Price is stabilizing above support, and both options and macro context are confirming a period of price discovery and base building. I remain patient and focused on the following confirmation signals before considering new exposure:
Bullish confirmation: Sustained move and hold above $7.20 with an uptick in volume and/or a visible shift in call open interest (especially at or above $7.50).
Bearish/neutral scenario: Breakdown below $7.00 on increased volume or a shift in options flow toward lower strike puts would suggest further consolidation or potential downside risk.
Downside invalidation: Structure invalid below $6.85; further base building expected toward $6.27 if this level fails.
Until one of these signals emerges, I remain in observation mode and will adjust accordingly as new data develops.
Note
Mid-Morning Update (July 17, 2025):BBAI has continued its breakout trajectory, currently trading at $8.27 after a sharp extension from the key breakout level. Entry was executed at $7.61 on confirmation of the breakout above $7.50, with expanding volume and clear follow-through- matching the original rules based plan.
The move is backed by robust spot participation and healthy momentum, with RSI on the 15 minute chart holding above 60. The recent session high of $8.38 reflects strong buying interest, and the volume signature confirms this is genuine initiative flow rather than a short squeeze.
Options chain positioning reinforces the move:
Front week call open interest and volume have rotated up to the $8.00 and $8.50 strikes, with continued build out further up the chain for August expiries.
Put activity remains present at $7.50 and $7.00 but is not expanding, suggesting limited demand for protection and no signs of panic.
Spreads are tight and implied volatility is climbing in line with price action, reflecting orderly, bullish participation.
This environment supports holding the position as long as structure and momentum persist. Stops should now be trailed to just below $8.00 to lock in gains, and risk should be managed proactively as the price approaches potential extension targets at $8.50 and above.
If price continues higher with volume and call open interest shifts to higher strikes, upside could extend toward $9.00+. Conversely, a reversal and close below $8.00 with declining volume or a sudden shift in put activity would be an early signal to reduce or reassess exposure.
Summary:
Entry at $7.61 is active and in profit.
Trade is managed with stops above breakeven, monitoring for sustained volume and options flow confirmation.
Bias remains constructive while $8.00 holds; upside targets at $8.50 and $9.00 in focus.
Note
Post-Market Update (July 17, 2025):BBAI closed at $8.22 after a high volume breakout session, consolidating well above the $8.00 psychological level and holding the gains made during the morning extension. The day’s action validates the prior breakout above $7.50 and confirms the shift in character from basing to trending. The 36 EMA (now $7.38 on the hourly) and session VWAP ($8.05) are well below current price, supporting the bullish structure.
Trade Execution:
Long from $7.61 (breakout confirmation) remains active and in profit. Trailing stop is now moved to just below $8.00 to protect gains while allowing for further upside.
Options Flow:
The options chain showed persistent accumulation of calls at the $8.00 and $8.50 strikes, with continued interest building out through August expiries. There is no outsized put hedging, and spreads remain tight, confirming healthy risk appetite and positioning for higher prices.
Market Context:
Nasdaq futures (NQ) also ended higher on the day, supporting risk-on sentiment in the tech space. Post-market action has been muted, with no signs of immediate reversal or risk-off flows.
Momentum & Structure:
RSI closed elevated (hourly 78, 15-min 68), consistent with overbought conditions, but volume and trend remain supportive.
Price is consolidating above the upper Bollinger/VWAP bands, with no significant selling pressure into the close.
Plan:
Continue to hold above $8.00 while monitoring for follow through toward the $8.50–$9.00 target zone.
If momentum fades or price loses $8.00 with volume, consider reducing size or taking profits.
Remain vigilant for a possible consolidation phase after this strong advance, especially as options open interest climbs further up the chain.
Summary:
Breakout structure and trade thesis remain intact. Position is managed with stops above breakeven, targeting continued strength as long as the bullish structure holds.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.