BCH Technical Analysis and trade journal. Week of 4/8/19
Updated
BCH in Depth Technical Analysis and trade journal. Week of 4/8/19
Trader Noxtreme back, going in depth on more coins for you all. I am finding a journal approach helpful for my published ideas so if you are finding it helpful also or if you want to join in PLEASE LIKE, SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT. We are here to learn and grow as traders so do a good thing and share your strategies and ideas with us.
So let’s jump into it.
BCH weekly RSI is at 50. This is lower than LTC (68) and BTC (57) so, surprisingly, BCH has more room to run. This being said, BCH had one of the largest moves of the top 5 market cap crypto. BCH 108%, LTC 65%, BTC 32%, ETH 29%. These are interesting numbers in themselves but they indicate BCH and LTC ran the hardest, and they have the biggest loss potential if the entire space declines or consolidates. RSI being the lowest on BCH says that it did not take as buying pressure to move this price and I assume it would not take as much selling pressure to drop it either.
I want to quickly touch on the green boxes on my chart. The big green box we are currently in is a price gap from the BCH/BSV contentious hard fork. Gaps tend to fill quickly in stocks so I have been watching this area for a potential gap fill and then a gap fill reversal. I am not all that experienced with these types of situations but I have been studying them.
The second smaller green box is where I see our extreme pullback potential. This area has seen a lot of price actions so if we get a bear volume spike there is a chance we could come all the way back between 168.64 and 153 which is tough to even consider when looking at shorter term time frames and a current price of 309.
Lastly we have the 50 week MA coming down to greet us; potentially at the top of our price gap.
Take always: BCH is a wild one. It is thinly traded and your risk reward is going to be greater. We are in somewhat uncharted territory price wise but RSI shows room to run on the weekly and we have less resistance then support at the current price level on most exchanges.
On the BCH daily I am again seeing more bullish signs then bearish. First one being 12MA is about to cross the 200MA and the price hit the 200, briefly consolidated, then pushed right through, creating a little support there (white line). Bears are looking at the RSI of 79 and how easily this one moves but if I were able to short I would be looking for the gap fill reversal over a short here. We also have a big, (somewhat) symmetrical triangle bull flag. Again I think I would not be thinking of shorting BCH here if I was a bear. Volume is declining while price is consolidating up. MacD shows bull needing to slow down.
I am left with these conclusions: BCH is a bit of a wild card and it tends to not do what you expect (from my past experience). I am expecting a test of the top of the gap then a reversal, but again, this one tends to not do what I expect so I’m going to watch for the contrary pull back to the 200MA and then another spike up past the top of the gap and then the gap becomes support. Perhaps even a pull back to the lower green box. Sorry this is more of a gut reaction to what I’ve experienced with this coin but looking for these lower entries will provide better risk to reward. I like to say BCH is a stallion in a world of bulls and bears so I'm going to try and lasso this one from a distance.
Jumping into the 4hr we see our symmetrical triangle bull flag in all its glory. It looks like we are trying to hold support on the 26MA. The ranges between support and resistance lines are big. 17+ % from our current 294 support to the 200 ma cross support we see on my daily. 42% + to get down to our smaller green box and there are only (about 9) supports in that range.
RSI is 56 but BCH does not seem to like being less than 43 RSI on the 4hr since the end of January 19. We see the same swing characteristic here though; when it breaks it really breaks.
Finally our hourly for all the traders out there. Not much to say here that I have not already said for the longer term time frames other then we don’t really have a consistent RSI to play off for entries (look for 43 on the 4 hr). I’m seeing a lot more wicks on the tops of our highs then off the bottoms of our lows which leans a little bearish. 12 and 50 MA just crossed the 50 bearish. MacD isn’t sure what it wants. We are running out of space in our flag so this one could give us a sneak peak of what the rest of the pack might do.
This is my story and I’m sticking to it. Good luck and be cautious with this one. Stops are needed but VERY difficult to use because it swings so far.
PLEASE LIKE SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT if this helps you out or you have something you see that I missed.
Trader Noxtreme back, going in depth on more coins for you all. I am finding a journal approach helpful for my published ideas so if you are finding it helpful also or if you want to join in PLEASE LIKE, SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT. We are here to learn and grow as traders so do a good thing and share your strategies and ideas with us.
So let’s jump into it.
BCH weekly RSI is at 50. This is lower than LTC (68) and BTC (57) so, surprisingly, BCH has more room to run. This being said, BCH had one of the largest moves of the top 5 market cap crypto. BCH 108%, LTC 65%, BTC 32%, ETH 29%. These are interesting numbers in themselves but they indicate BCH and LTC ran the hardest, and they have the biggest loss potential if the entire space declines or consolidates. RSI being the lowest on BCH says that it did not take as buying pressure to move this price and I assume it would not take as much selling pressure to drop it either.
I want to quickly touch on the green boxes on my chart. The big green box we are currently in is a price gap from the BCH/BSV contentious hard fork. Gaps tend to fill quickly in stocks so I have been watching this area for a potential gap fill and then a gap fill reversal. I am not all that experienced with these types of situations but I have been studying them.
The second smaller green box is where I see our extreme pullback potential. This area has seen a lot of price actions so if we get a bear volume spike there is a chance we could come all the way back between 168.64 and 153 which is tough to even consider when looking at shorter term time frames and a current price of 309.
Lastly we have the 50 week MA coming down to greet us; potentially at the top of our price gap.
Take always: BCH is a wild one. It is thinly traded and your risk reward is going to be greater. We are in somewhat uncharted territory price wise but RSI shows room to run on the weekly and we have less resistance then support at the current price level on most exchanges.
On the BCH daily I am again seeing more bullish signs then bearish. First one being 12MA is about to cross the 200MA and the price hit the 200, briefly consolidated, then pushed right through, creating a little support there (white line). Bears are looking at the RSI of 79 and how easily this one moves but if I were able to short I would be looking for the gap fill reversal over a short here. We also have a big, (somewhat) symmetrical triangle bull flag. Again I think I would not be thinking of shorting BCH here if I was a bear. Volume is declining while price is consolidating up. MacD shows bull needing to slow down.
I am left with these conclusions: BCH is a bit of a wild card and it tends to not do what you expect (from my past experience). I am expecting a test of the top of the gap then a reversal, but again, this one tends to not do what I expect so I’m going to watch for the contrary pull back to the 200MA and then another spike up past the top of the gap and then the gap becomes support. Perhaps even a pull back to the lower green box. Sorry this is more of a gut reaction to what I’ve experienced with this coin but looking for these lower entries will provide better risk to reward. I like to say BCH is a stallion in a world of bulls and bears so I'm going to try and lasso this one from a distance.
Jumping into the 4hr we see our symmetrical triangle bull flag in all its glory. It looks like we are trying to hold support on the 26MA. The ranges between support and resistance lines are big. 17+ % from our current 294 support to the 200 ma cross support we see on my daily. 42% + to get down to our smaller green box and there are only (about 9) supports in that range.
RSI is 56 but BCH does not seem to like being less than 43 RSI on the 4hr since the end of January 19. We see the same swing characteristic here though; when it breaks it really breaks.
Finally our hourly for all the traders out there. Not much to say here that I have not already said for the longer term time frames other then we don’t really have a consistent RSI to play off for entries (look for 43 on the 4 hr). I’m seeing a lot more wicks on the tops of our highs then off the bottoms of our lows which leans a little bearish. 12 and 50 MA just crossed the 50 bearish. MacD isn’t sure what it wants. We are running out of space in our flag so this one could give us a sneak peak of what the rest of the pack might do.
This is my story and I’m sticking to it. Good luck and be cautious with this one. Stops are needed but VERY difficult to use because it swings so far.
PLEASE LIKE SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT if this helps you out or you have something you see that I missed.
Note
Sticking to the entry I stated above at around 243. Rsi on the 4 hr did dip below 43 but did not go oversold. We have now popped back up on the RSI so 243 entry would likely hit perfect on the 4hr oversold RSI level. Seems like a VERY ideal entry to me so I am just waiting for the trade to come to me;)Next week I plan to look at more BTC correlations because we clearly have significant correlation across the space in the overall macro trend.
Note
Picked up one BCH BEFORE it ran. I heard my price alerts go off letting me know that LTC had made a break up in price. Checked over the top few coins by market cap coins and realized BCH was actually pulling back and in the middle of a 15 min equilibrium while everyone else had broke out. I bought at 291 when the previous lower high broke on the 15 and then BCH ran just like the rest. Awesome lager play that I was able to catch. Sitting with a stop that will keep a few dollars profit. Pat on the back if you caught this one too. Only grabbed one and I'm not confident enough that we will see continuation to pick up more.Comfortable with a few dollars profit if we fall back down but I am also pulling my buy order at 243 because we now have stops that will trigger if we fall back down past 255 and bears will be looking for that level to break. If we drop lower then 255 I believe we will see sub 200 again but maybe only briefly.
New in depth tomorrow to try and figure out what the week ahead might hold.
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