BCH/USD, 1d, 4h, 1h (4/29/2018)
Updated
Starting with higher timeframes:
1. Strong uptrend (favors breakouts and offers limited opportunities to buy pullbacks on the way up)
2. Price has hit resistance (strongest since original breakout) and we are now in a corrective phase.
Entry options:
--A pre-breakout buy. There is a reasonable shot at a breakout here but also a high probability of a reversal at this level. IF bulls continue buying in at higher prices and we get an another rejection that more clearly defines where the bears are then I will consider a pre-breakout. So far I'm not convinced but will keep watching.
--An option I like better in this case is a breakout that pushes thru resistance and then pulls back to retest that area. Not all breakouts retest, especially in a strong trend but this is a key level and I would expect a retest at some point.
If price fails at resistance I think we will at least see a retest of S/R @ ~1130. I would be willing to place limit orders at this level with my first target at just under 1600 zone.
An even better location would be to buy any retest of the S/R zone @ around 850. I would expect a good 1st bounce here if past bounces are any indication
Analysis of the corrective structure and intraday will be added as an update below:
*Full disclaimer: I'm not a professional by any means, this is merely how I plan to trade this scenario using my own money--nothing more. The primary reason I post these is to see how they play out and learn from my mistakes.
**ignore the abbreviations
1. Strong uptrend (favors breakouts and offers limited opportunities to buy pullbacks on the way up)
2. Price has hit resistance (strongest since original breakout) and we are now in a corrective phase.
Entry options:
--A pre-breakout buy. There is a reasonable shot at a breakout here but also a high probability of a reversal at this level. IF bulls continue buying in at higher prices and we get an another rejection that more clearly defines where the bears are then I will consider a pre-breakout. So far I'm not convinced but will keep watching.
--An option I like better in this case is a breakout that pushes thru resistance and then pulls back to retest that area. Not all breakouts retest, especially in a strong trend but this is a key level and I would expect a retest at some point.
If price fails at resistance I think we will at least see a retest of S/R @ ~1130. I would be willing to place limit orders at this level with my first target at just under 1600 zone.
An even better location would be to buy any retest of the S/R zone @ around 850. I would expect a good 1st bounce here if past bounces are any indication
Analysis of the corrective structure and intraday will be added as an update below:
*Full disclaimer: I'm not a professional by any means, this is merely how I plan to trade this scenario using my own money--nothing more. The primary reason I post these is to see how they play out and learn from my mistakes.
**ignore the abbreviations
Note
The corrective structure we are currently in is basically just a channel. While price certainly looks willing to test resistance, I'm not sure I'd buy into this with a pre-breakout in mind. I may play the bottom of the channel on the 5 minute chart or buy with a target of the recent high but on its own this is not a setup that is an obvious pre-breakout buy. I might also buy the bottom of the channel and move to breakeven ASAP just to be in the market.
Note
I should mention that this channel should be hitting some resistance soon--it may not have more than one or two bounces leftNote
First buy--we'll see if the channel holds. 1st target is the top of the channel but I might just move to break-even if I get the chance just to be in the market if the channel breaks to the upside.
Note
Lower trendline has definitely been violated to some degree. If minor support fails & stops me out I there is likely some buyers at 1250. Stronger support would be at ~1100
Note
Bounce at 1 hour support.
Note
if this bounce or the next is weak I would expect a drop down more substantial support at 1100
Disclaimer
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