Long
Ticking supply bomb that will trap buyers before 2018!
Updated
Bitcoin Cash has exceeded expectations. Reaching a stunning 2800 USD high!
But beware, there is a ticking supply bomb on the horizon, and it's a very dangerous one.
Fundamental
Bitcoin Cash will not be the new Bitcoin. Their solution is short minded and BTC will keep the throne.
Not going into detail about that subject now though, I expect most have their own opinion on the matter.
But that is my mindset, and unless something huge unexpected happens I am sticking to that. In crypto everything is possible though, and I am not taking my positon as a given and will always be aware that things might change.
Now over to the reason I think Bitcoin Cash is dangerous to hold, the ticking supply bomb!
Before 1st January, both Bitmex and Coinbase will release their BCH. Bitmex will actually sell them all on market and give its users BTC. Bitmex Blog Post.
That is not a small chuck of coins! Bitmex is the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the space, and Coinbase is the go to exchange for people to purchase and hold lots of Bitcoin.
It will deal a hard blow to the market when it happens, and it will. It's just a question of when.
That's where my small long come into play. Because I do not believe it will happen yet. I think we need more buyers to buy up before it does.
Bitmex will sell all their BCH on a date that is obviously secret, but before 2018. I don't think they will drop it all on the market so to speak, and it would surprise me if they sell when price is going down.
It's speculation, but most likely I see them selling out chuncks of coins when it is going up. They will want to give back its customers as much money as they think they can get.
Therefore I believe there is room to go up before anything "bad" happens with Bitcoin Cash. Trying to make money both ways here, and there is obviously risks on both sides. However, I have much more faith in the short if I can get a good price and will adjust my positions after.
Will keep updating this idea as things will change and most likely the chart will not play out exactly as I think it will as of right now.
Technical
As Bitcoin is consolidating I am looking to make small long today with my eye out for the 0.5 FIB (1553USD). Opening up at 1230 and closing it out a little below the FIB at 1520 USD.
From there I predict we might see a head and shoulders as Bitmex onloads their BCH on the market. It might be a nice place to make swing trades, but I am just looking for a nice place to open a short after I have closed my long.
The 0.618 FIB is 1848 USD so if I can get a short position at 1800 USD I am very happy. This position I will hold and watch the supply increase while price slowly goes back to support at 600 USD. Buying a little over as usual, 650 USD is a number I like.
As mentioned, things will most likely not play out exactly as I am thinking right now, but I will keep updating as we go along.
Not a big long position on me so no need for stop loss on that one, but will obviously need one on the short if that gets opened. Most likely at 2050 and 2500 but lets take that when the time is right.
Numbers
But beware, there is a ticking supply bomb on the horizon, and it's a very dangerous one.
Fundamental
Bitcoin Cash will not be the new Bitcoin. Their solution is short minded and BTC will keep the throne.
Not going into detail about that subject now though, I expect most have their own opinion on the matter.
But that is my mindset, and unless something huge unexpected happens I am sticking to that. In crypto everything is possible though, and I am not taking my positon as a given and will always be aware that things might change.
Now over to the reason I think Bitcoin Cash is dangerous to hold, the ticking supply bomb!
Before 1st January, both Bitmex and Coinbase will release their BCH. Bitmex will actually sell them all on market and give its users BTC. Bitmex Blog Post.
That is not a small chuck of coins! Bitmex is the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the space, and Coinbase is the go to exchange for people to purchase and hold lots of Bitcoin.
It will deal a hard blow to the market when it happens, and it will. It's just a question of when.
That's where my small long come into play. Because I do not believe it will happen yet. I think we need more buyers to buy up before it does.
Bitmex will sell all their BCH on a date that is obviously secret, but before 2018. I don't think they will drop it all on the market so to speak, and it would surprise me if they sell when price is going down.
It's speculation, but most likely I see them selling out chuncks of coins when it is going up. They will want to give back its customers as much money as they think they can get.
Therefore I believe there is room to go up before anything "bad" happens with Bitcoin Cash. Trying to make money both ways here, and there is obviously risks on both sides. However, I have much more faith in the short if I can get a good price and will adjust my positions after.
Will keep updating this idea as things will change and most likely the chart will not play out exactly as I think it will as of right now.
Technical
As Bitcoin is consolidating I am looking to make small long today with my eye out for the 0.5 FIB (1553USD). Opening up at 1230 and closing it out a little below the FIB at 1520 USD.
From there I predict we might see a head and shoulders as Bitmex onloads their BCH on the market. It might be a nice place to make swing trades, but I am just looking for a nice place to open a short after I have closed my long.
The 0.618 FIB is 1848 USD so if I can get a short position at 1800 USD I am very happy. This position I will hold and watch the supply increase while price slowly goes back to support at 600 USD. Buying a little over as usual, 650 USD is a number I like.
As mentioned, things will most likely not play out exactly as I am thinking right now, but I will keep updating as we go along.
Not a big long position on me so no need for stop loss on that one, but will obviously need one on the short if that gets opened. Most likely at 2050 and 2500 but lets take that when the time is right.
Numbers
- Long Position - 1230 USD
- Close Long - 1530 USD
- Short Position - 1800 USD
- Close Short - 650 USD.
Note
"nice movie script, you should try movie production business."Someone commented.
While it's more unlikely than not, that commenter may have to eat his words.
Chart is painting itself right after my prediction at the moment and we have a left shoulder. Will we get the head and right, to complete this pattern? Lets see :)
Regardless, I have hit my first target at 1530 USD, for a 20% profit!
Now it's time to watch the BCH market over the next couple weeks and see what happens. If it goes on to make that head, I am looking to enter the short at 1800 USD!
Note
Going almost exactly after the plan!Too bad that head coulndt go a little higher, my short orders was right below 1800 USD!
But now I dont like 1800 short anymore, so let's stay patient and wait for some more clear confirmation on what's going to happen.
If you are a daytrader, this is a nice place to gain a few points on long with tight stop-loss.
Note
Why didnt it just go to 1800? My short would have been gold now! Well well, can't win em all :)Got in a small short earlier though, but the entry is far from ideal at 1398.
I should have shorted yesterday when it was clear we where going down, but was busy with other markets.
Trade closed: target reached
Closed out that small short for break even, and I am going to add BCH to my portfolio in this area.Going to create an idea later and explain why :)
This trade idea followed my prediction very well!
Too bad I missed the short, but ended up with the 20% gain from long.
Also! I am getting close to completing my portfolio page on website, check it out if interested:
kryptokelly.com/portfolio :)
Note
Awesome! Trendline held very nicely.I added BCH to my portfolio when it was testing it, 1232 USD :)
Trade closed: target reached
First sell was not 20%, it was 24%. Used wrong calculcator or something a period I guess.The last comment is when I bought for this idea :)
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