8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
BLDE
Big into print ~2.8/shr
- have written before that value <$3 and deep f'n value <2.5
- we have a setup where the stock clearly looks like it was whacked on small cap flows (if you watch any number of small caps you'll notice the same -30% move in the last weeks)
- as a reminder these guys fly around organs (a better ambulance business) and also ppl with more disposable income to the airport (i have always pitched it as "uber for rich people"). it's a good service.
- they have piles of cash and will be profitable this year
- this thing trades as if it's any other run of the mill SPAC (there are a few that have broken out and shed this taint -
HIMS is a good example).
- but the valuation onBLDE is particularly compelling b/c of the inflection to profitability and massive cash stack
- i'd not be surprised if
UBER buys this company in the next 12 months. it checks that box i look for as well.
- while this *shouldn't* be such a negative, but it is, our friend Cathie is the largest shareholder at 8%. she's just been such a contra-indicator that it's worth noting
- i'd also flag two notable "gaps" in the chart. one at the ~2.5$ level from March '24 and one at the ~$2.3 level in Nov '23. while market markets like to fill these for reasons i won't get into - it's typically more relevant for larger stocks (and more liquid options chains) than smaller caps. so any beat will render these gaps effectively useless.
- HOWEVER, they are relevant b/c any miss or mediocre result does probably tend to at least the $2.5 level.
- the way i've been navigating these mkts lately is only finding stuff i'm comfortable buying with 20% dips. this means i goal seek for a size where i like the stock as is, and any lower i'm not feeling like i need to cut and run and take the L. this is one of those.
- so while i think the multi-year upside and genuinely the setup b/c of the small cap setup (and sell off) puts this in a good space for a 10%+ move and continued run (i think 15-20% is possible but i'm not counting on it)... i'm also aware that it's a very small cap company in a tape that is ruthless and might still not be done puking at any given time.
so while risky. i like the valuation. i like the setup b/c of the hole that small caps put in the chart (as if this were any of those - and it's not IMHO). and i'm conscious of the gaps lower. oh... these guys buyback shares ;)
I'm 5% size into the print. i'll take it toward 10% the closer we go to low $2's (assuming there's nothing fundamentally *wrong*) and probably a 5-7% position if good result but we dip - similar to what we saw on
CELH and i've been adding, same with 
NXT logic.
that was a long one. if you're still here - thanks.
let's see.
V
BLDEBig into print ~2.8/shr
- have written before that value <$3 and deep f'n value <2.5
- we have a setup where the stock clearly looks like it was whacked on small cap flows (if you watch any number of small caps you'll notice the same -30% move in the last weeks)
- as a reminder these guys fly around organs (a better ambulance business) and also ppl with more disposable income to the airport (i have always pitched it as "uber for rich people"). it's a good service.
- they have piles of cash and will be profitable this year
- this thing trades as if it's any other run of the mill SPAC (there are a few that have broken out and shed this taint -
HIMS is a good example).- but the valuation on
BLDE is particularly compelling b/c of the inflection to profitability and massive cash stack- i'd not be surprised if
UBER buys this company in the next 12 months. it checks that box i look for as well.- while this *shouldn't* be such a negative, but it is, our friend Cathie is the largest shareholder at 8%. she's just been such a contra-indicator that it's worth noting
- i'd also flag two notable "gaps" in the chart. one at the ~2.5$ level from March '24 and one at the ~$2.3 level in Nov '23. while market markets like to fill these for reasons i won't get into - it's typically more relevant for larger stocks (and more liquid options chains) than smaller caps. so any beat will render these gaps effectively useless.
- HOWEVER, they are relevant b/c any miss or mediocre result does probably tend to at least the $2.5 level.
- the way i've been navigating these mkts lately is only finding stuff i'm comfortable buying with 20% dips. this means i goal seek for a size where i like the stock as is, and any lower i'm not feeling like i need to cut and run and take the L. this is one of those.
- so while i think the multi-year upside and genuinely the setup b/c of the small cap setup (and sell off) puts this in a good space for a 10%+ move and continued run (i think 15-20% is possible but i'm not counting on it)... i'm also aware that it's a very small cap company in a tape that is ruthless and might still not be done puking at any given time.
so while risky. i like the valuation. i like the setup b/c of the hole that small caps put in the chart (as if this were any of those - and it's not IMHO). and i'm conscious of the gaps lower. oh... these guys buyback shares ;)
I'm 5% size into the print. i'll take it toward 10% the closer we go to low $2's (assuming there's nothing fundamentally *wrong*) and probably a 5-7% position if good result but we dip - similar to what we saw on
CELH and i've been adding, same with NXT logic.that was a long one. if you're still here - thanks.
let's see.
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.