Bitcoin Long-Term Wave Count - Road to $100k And Beyond
Updated
FIRST OF ALL, I AM NOT LONG NOW. SHORT-TERM I AM BEARISH. Lol... This is a long-term post, but entry now probably isn't what I'd prefer.
So all of my posts recently are shorts and are very bearish, mainly because they are short-term. Long term I'm still REALLY bullish on Bitcoin. Its going to sky rocket. But skyrocketing in value is pretty dangerous, so if it happens like this, then there would become a point where you may have to convince yourself that "holding on for dear life" may not be too good of a slogan.
I saw an analysis that kind of covered this that I liked, but the subwaves were not counted. That is the most dangerous thing you can do as an elliot wave analyst. If you don't count subwaves, then you're analysis is going to bite you in the ass later down the road.
So, still as said before, short-term I'm expecting a pretty low bottom. It's possible that it doesn't happen that way, but I think its going to happen. Between $2,500-$3,600 would probably be an estimated bottom for this correction. That would give the opportunity for a nice accumulation phase for bigger players and institutions before the price starts to ramp up again. Remember guys. We were just at this price last October/November. We were at 3k last September. Why is everyone freaking out? Bitcoin is moving FAST.
So all of my posts recently are shorts and are very bearish, mainly because they are short-term. Long term I'm still REALLY bullish on Bitcoin. Its going to sky rocket. But skyrocketing in value is pretty dangerous, so if it happens like this, then there would become a point where you may have to convince yourself that "holding on for dear life" may not be too good of a slogan.
I saw an analysis that kind of covered this that I liked, but the subwaves were not counted. That is the most dangerous thing you can do as an elliot wave analyst. If you don't count subwaves, then you're analysis is going to bite you in the ass later down the road.
So, still as said before, short-term I'm expecting a pretty low bottom. It's possible that it doesn't happen that way, but I think its going to happen. Between $2,500-$3,600 would probably be an estimated bottom for this correction. That would give the opportunity for a nice accumulation phase for bigger players and institutions before the price starts to ramp up again. Remember guys. We were just at this price last October/November. We were at 3k last September. Why is everyone freaking out? Bitcoin is moving FAST.
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Wave count since 2014
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twitter.com/CryptoEBall/status/1005844917099356160I am not able to upload screenshots on here, but please check out this chart and this passage from my favorite EW report.
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Hope you all are staying safe out there. Not much to say as these drops were expected. If you're in a short from 7.1k+ you will be fine. I've taken profits and re-opened positions from 7.6k to 7.2k. My 7.2k positions I'm leaving open for a while. 5.3k is probably where I'll take profit on the swing and then re-enter for the next move down to 3k. I'll update charts when everything settles down, no reason to even look at it right now. I think we're on a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd, so when it finishes things should slow down just a tiny bit and consolidate. I'll update then.
Note: This summer my plan was to really educate and give a lot of the information I learned back to you all. But I've learned that even I myself suck as a trader. LOL. No just kidding. But really, I still have a lot to learn, and I'm messing around with different techniques to truly find my niche. I'm working with forex markets as well and will be getting more into equities (even though i think that market is going to die lol). When I really develop as a trader, and can master more advanced markets, I want to teach you all what I've learned works, and what doesn't. It's very easy to find people who think they know everything and haven't traded with much experience. I don't want to be that person. I highly respect and look up to those who have traded for 15+ years. I'm not going to wait that long before I begin educating, but I want to make sure my techniques are very sound and trusted. I've made hundreds of trades already, but I want to work with more data to see what works and what doesn't for myself. Every trader has their own techniques, so I cant say one style is better than the other. That being said, i encourage all of you to find things that suit you. Whether its theory, indicators, patterns, harmonics, etc. I've been working hard this summer on myself, and I'm not done yet. Hopefully you all have been able to tell by performance, but there's a lot I'm working on.
I'm working with a start-up hedge fund where the initial core purpose will be a focus on cryptocurrencies. So a lot of my time has been spent with that. We'll be offering services for those who would like to invest but do not have the time for trading. I'll let you all know when that goes underway. As I earn certificates and licenses and develop as a trader, i'll surely give back to the community. That's all I care about. I couldn't care less about the money, that's not what I'm here for. But right now I must focus on myself before I can give back the way that I want to. As mentioned, I wanted to turn trading into a full time thing. At first its all about survival, then perfecting you craft and profiting big. I'm still perfecting my craft, and I want to make sure anything that comes from my mouth in terms of education and advise has some backbone and data behind it. Give me a follow on twitter to keep up with me. Hope you all are doing well!
P.S. ( I did not proof read this and just wrote away. So if something doesn't make sense, or if you want to make fun of me, leave it in the comments ! lol).
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Description of the graph above is coming very soon, give me a second. I want to look at the picture as I describe it.
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So here is a graph of BTC price, BTCUSD longs and BTCUSD Shorts. What do you notice about this chart?First thing, you should note that people suck at shorting and going long. lol... just kidding. So, before you continue reading, take a look at the notes I have on the chart.
Welcome back. First, lets look at the "BTCUSD longs" trend since the downtrend. Notice how at every peak, the BTCUSD Longs peak out. And each big downtrend resulted in a correlated uptrend with long positions. And through that last uptrend AND downtrend, they've remained flat. What does this mean? It means that the market is turning neutral in their positions. It's sad that it's taken a 60% drop and 6 months of downtrending for people to realize that we're in a bear market. And, and by the charts, they still think we're neutral!
Usually I try to trade against market sentiment. Because very often, it is wrong. People get emotionally invested into the price action, and it skews their views into an inappropriate bias. But sometimes, market sentiment is correct. What I've noticed, is that market sentiment is never correct at the bottom nor the top of swing highs and lows. Otherwise, we'd all be rich!
What moves the market is big money. Whales, institutions, etc. And if you take a look at the correlation between these peaks and valleys of ACTUAL price and net longs/shorts at those peaks and valleys, you will see that what i said is VERY true. If EVERYONE is bullish, then we're probably topping out, if EVERYONE is bearish, then we're probably hitting a bottom. Most retail investors are always late to the party.
That being said. Let's take a look at BTCUSD Shorts. People suck at shorting. Why? People the natural slope of the market is up. It's always harder to short, and people tend to shy away from it. So when do they choose to short? When the downtrend is obvious and its way too late.
Well guess what. Take a look at each yellow circle here. Notice whenever the Shorts reach a peak, the price spikes up and shorts get liquidated. Note this, the big money needs liquidity in the market to keep it moving. For example, say we are in a downtrend. We are reaching near the bottom of the downtrend (or the buy zone/accumulation period), and retail investors are finally catching on. They begin to short. EVERYONE is selling. If everyone is selling, then where are the buyers? Who can you sell to if there are no buyers? So, what do you have to do as a result of there being an illiquid order book of people trying to catch a falling knife? You've got to pump the price up, liquidate the shorters, and keep the market moving in order to reach your accumulation/buy zone. It happens ALL the time, and the crypto market is just now starting to see how this all works because it was in such a long bullish stretch. These pumps and dumps happen in every market, and its to provide liquidity. It is a market scheme. It isn't very ethical, but its what big money does to keep the market moving. It's a form of greed, but its how the market works.
Take a note of where both Longs and Shorts are now. When we begin to see the two lines converge, then that is a sign that at least some type of trend pause, or reversal is ahead.
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