The Start of a Run
Updated
Crypto has become mellow. Blowoff tops and massive V-shaped recoveries are not common anymore. Cycles are also much more tightly coupled with stonks since hedge funds and banks have crypto desks with quants smoothing out the market. You could say Bitcoin is whipped now.
I decided to mark a breakdown from here to the low 20ks range because that's the most realistic things to expect. It may not be a full breakdown over the next week, but the reality is that further upside just doesn't fit the market structure. Charts tell a story and a pump does not follow. I believe that marking some support levels over the rest of the year is, in fact, the better alternative that assume BTC won't go to zero or stagnate. That would be a story told by dropping under 17k.
Let's not forget that our lives still suck. Inflation is not quite going away, and the job market hasn't recovered across society. The Russian-Ukrainian War is still not resolved. Even if the Fed has skipped tomorrow's, at least two more hikes are coming later on. QE needs to be reversed for this charade to continue.
Overall, this is how I see the story playing out. Prices are not just levels. I'm not super confident about this narrative this time around, but nothing else fits better!
I decided to mark a breakdown from here to the low 20ks range because that's the most realistic things to expect. It may not be a full breakdown over the next week, but the reality is that further upside just doesn't fit the market structure. Charts tell a story and a pump does not follow. I believe that marking some support levels over the rest of the year is, in fact, the better alternative that assume BTC won't go to zero or stagnate. That would be a story told by dropping under 17k.
Let's not forget that our lives still suck. Inflation is not quite going away, and the job market hasn't recovered across society. The Russian-Ukrainian War is still not resolved. Even if the Fed has skipped tomorrow's, at least two more hikes are coming later on. QE needs to be reversed for this charade to continue.
Overall, this is how I see the story playing out. Prices are not just levels. I'm not super confident about this narrative this time around, but nothing else fits better!
Note
My only regret on that chart is making the final rise not steep enough, but I wanted it to match the starting trend, which is the only and best approximation.
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