Long

Grand Daddy Cycle

By BTCilyKandinsky

Updated

2020 or 2022. 300k or 800k+

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Twin Peaks on the weekly y'all. Feelin' foolishly boolish.

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Closing above 9.6k on the 3D will give me more confirmation that we are starting a new bull cycle.

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Meeting heavy resistance here. Judging from previous cycle we corrected here which would target about the $6-5.8k region, but we're consolidating under resistance which may imply another leg up. If we do correct here we will most likely spend the rest of 2019 under 9k and won't see a newer high until 2020. We'll have some serious work to do once we break into the cloud. Once we're above senkou B and successfully test it...it's free sailing ladies and gentlemen.

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A correction to 5.8k may be too deep. We may have a more shallow correction and range from the high $6-8k for some time. Time will tell.

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Consolidating under resistance. If we are pushing up either we can stall at 9.5k and then correct or we break resistance (9.6k) and make our way to 10.5-13k. Highly unlikely, but I'm just interpreting the probabilities.

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Elliott wave count

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Decision time - Drawn in aqua squiggles are two possible path of direction and consolidation before another mark up to possible ATHs. The way it's consolidating, I'm thinking we mark up to 9.5k at least, but I'm going to go balls to the wall and call 10.5-13k. If we do I don't think we will ever see 6k again.

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Channels within channels.

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Some possible routes based off of market geometry. Bearish/bullish targets and time confluence...or we could just totally ignore all of these channels and nuke or moon. If I were a market maker I'd slow grind all the way up to 6 digits and take out shorts slowly and painfully and nuke it. Just some thoughts. This IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

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I also realize that the main chart is pretty hard to see, but I tried to encompass to whole cycle of BTC. It's my first post so apologies. Next time I'll do my best to make it more visible.

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A blow off top would put us at $13-16k. I'm most likely going to be wrong, but hey...lambo dreams.

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I present to you the Euclidian isosceles triangle.

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Red it is. Current levels I'm looking at.

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Correction may be starting here. If be break and close below 7.6k that is m queue to assume that we are in a long correction. If the cycle repeats itself we will form an ascending triangle and hopefully break to the upside sometime around December of this year.

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Just to be clear I'm not bearish yet. 7.2k absolute confirmation that we are in correction mode and will maybe come back down to 5.8-6kish. I'm still holding onto my bullish bias that we see at least 10k before a major correction.

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Currently bouncing off 4hr support zone.

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Updated with another squiggly.

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Still holding support.

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Adjusted some channels. What I"m currently seeing on the 4hr. To be bullish I'd like it to break and hold the green box. Currently out of the down trend channel. Decision time soon.

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Entering overhead resistance.

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Currently following my green squiggle from a couple charts prior. If price fall below 7.9k, I'd be worried. That is my invalidation level for a bullish continuation. Stay above and we gucci mayne.

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"DAD! ARE WE THERE YET?"

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Looking good so far. I expect a small correction and then we will make new highs I hope.

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Boom. Let's go!

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Sitting below heavy resistance. We'll see if we break this, but I don't think so just yet. Not the first time. I think we need a small dip or form a pennant for a week. Who knows. Let's see.

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We wicked right below heavy resistance. We are still consolidating under here. I think we are bound to move up.

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The weekly.

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It's happening!

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Weekly. $10,150. Hard resistance.

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BOOM. Where to now?

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Broke the 0.5 fib. Time to go after the golden zone. Got my targets set at $13-14k. Blue box. Let's go there.

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Hit it to a T. If you scroll up you'll see that I'd like it to test 9.5k and no lower. If my prediction serves me right we'll be ranging in between 14k to 9.5k for several months until we (hopefully) break to the upside and see new ATHs.

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A possible bull case to 15-16k based of a fractal in one of my posts. We break below 10.2k we are over, but if we hold it we will see more upside soon. Fib confluence at the .786 of the whole move from 20k to 3.2k and 1.272 of the current move from 3.2 to 13.8k.

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Track the fractal here -

$Will this key fractal play out and end the parabolic run for BTC$

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BTFD target is around 7.8k

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Don't think we'll get that 7.8k anymore. I'm targeting the 16k region if this breaks to the upside. Otherwise a rejection at 13.8k and range for several months.

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Well well...I guess we did get 7.8k after all. Would like to see a V-bottom reversal here, but keeping an open mind. See price history bouncing off of the blue line. If we close below on a 3 day candle, I'd be a little worried.

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Reversal off the blue line from August 2016.

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Similar bounce in August 2012 right before a v-reversal and then a massive run up.

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Holding 7.8k so far. Hopefully we range here for several months until we break 13.8k. If we do I'm pretty sure we head to ATHs. Fingers crossed.

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Note that it isn't a v-bottom like the other previous dips so structurally not the same. Being very cautious here and play it small.

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Sorry for the lack of updates. BTC has been on a wild ride for the past year. Macro analysis currently is neutral. We are currently testing heavy resistance on the weekly and stuck in the damn cloud on the 3 day. I think it's getting too cozy in there. There's a kumo twist around late September. Hopefully we will be above it by then. If not, I think there is a high probability that we are going deep and for a long long time. May never come back to the highs to put it bluntly.

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We are above the kumo twist as mentioned in the previous comment. I'd like to see a long consolidation and then hopefully attempt our way to make new highs.

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Support held at kumo twist (September) and grinding upwards. I'm so bullish it hurts. Looks like it is just getting started.

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Spicy!

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Beauty...

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Healthy consolidation here. Consolidate above tenkin sen and kijun sen with no close below it is what i'd like to see.

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tenken sen! kijun sen! HODL the line!

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What I am seeing as a healthy consolidation to attack previous ATH.

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This candle will know as the Elon candle. One for the history books!

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Left - Current PA. Right - Fractal from March 2017. We basically had a bearish 3=Day divergence playing out, but held @ 45-50 on the RSI. I'd like to see something similar for continuation to the upside.

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RSI needs to hold trend line otherwise we will need to test the 50 at least. If RSI breaks the upper diagonal then continuation. It's hard to ignore the bearish divergences, but also we could be consolidating upwards. It's a thing these days.

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Been a while since i've updated this thread. Currently we are in correction mode and RSI is testing 45-50. In our 2017 run we never closed below it. Would ideally like to hold for continuation to the upside.

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Seeing this a possibility currently.

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First time we have really tested the support below this entire run.

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Entering the zone.

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This is just an idea, but I can see BTC ranging and creating a floor for another liquidation event. On the weekly chart my supports are at the low to mid 30ks (chart below; orange/blue line). We will see if this holds. If not 24k is my next level.

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Wicked right through weekly support levels.

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I realize that not many people see this, but I don't really care. This is more of a dairy of thoughts on BTC's price action for myself. If you happen to see these chicken scratches and notations take it with a grain of salt.

In ranges we tend to build areas of liquidity where MM's will run them to fill their orders. I theorize we are in that range. This price action looks like filth and I'm not going to shill hopium for a v-bottom. The weekly wick looks ok, but it doesn't scream bottom just yet. I'm glad to be wrong, but trying to be as objective as possible. Again these are mental scribbles for myself. If you're following welcome to my brain.

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Potential break out of consolidation.

BTCilyKandinsky

BTCily Wassilyevich Kandinsky (16 December [O.S. 4 December] 1866 – 13 December 1944) was a Russian painter and (ch)art theorist.
Kandinsky is generally credited as the pioneer of abstract (ch)art.

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