The Bullish Scenario for $BTC/XBT That No One Else Is Charting.
Things for Bitcoin on the macro scale have been in a bear market for the last 14 months. The major trading pattern that has been repeatedly in play has been a major descending triangle. A descending triangle is typically inherentlya strong bearish indicator marked by lower highs and a strong horizontal support line below. Bitcoin constantly faced rejection of the resistance line shown on the below chart while holding the major support. At the apex of this descending triangle,the pressure finally gave out and resulted in a sharp downward drop to make new lows in the $3200 price range. I now see however a possible bullish scenario on a macro scale that could potentially mark the end of the bear market if it were to complete. (See bottom chart)
An ascending triangle is now forming on
BTC on the weekly/daily chart, and I haven't really seen anyone charting this potentially bullish scenario. An ascending triangle is a trading pattern in which a series of higher lows is made with a strong horizontal resistance which often takes being tested and rejected multiple times. It is typically a continuation pattern that results in a bullish break.
In our case, we have a very strong resistance level at the $4200 - 4300 range in which we have tested and been rejected 4 times so far. However; with each rejection, we have found support at a higher low after each rejection thus making the ascending triangle currently in play. For the last two weeks, we have also been trading within a short-term ascending price channel (White lines) in which higher highs and higher lows are being formed. The down-trending green line is the continuation of the trendline of the descending triangle continued which serves as a very strong resistance that we have yet to break.
In the next two weeks, if we remain in the ascending price channel, we could see a potential retest of the 4100-4300 range which would have a greater likelihood of a solid breakout than the previous rejection we just faced at these levels. A breakout and close above the green descending line would mark the first success in breaking this seemingly bullet-proof resistance line and also break the strong resistance at the same time. If we indeed manage to break out with significant volume and close a daily candle above $4300, there is minimal resistance until we hit $5500.
The resistance priced at $6100 - 6200 however likely remains likely the strongest resistance level bitcoin has ever had to overcome as prior support becomes new resistance. It may take multiple attempts and likely a strong fundamental catalyst event to break this heavy resistance. If in fact, we do close above $6000 with supporting volume on the daily and also a weekly with strong green candles, this may in fact be able to mark the end of the bear market.
The ascending triangle however doesn't hit its apex until mid-August. The closer we get to the apex of this ascending triangle, the more likely that we will get a strong breakout of the trade pattern. The MACD on the daily and weekly has been looking bullish although a bearish crossover on the MACD on the daily is possible in the next couple days which could break the support on our ascending channel which would make likely a further fall to the support at $3480 - 3500 likely before another attempt at breaking the green descending resistance could be attempted.
If we however, break below the support of the ascending triangle, there are not many support levels and we could potentially see dramatically lower lows towards the $2500 level. I am however feeling pretty confident that the bottom is likely in for Bitcoin, and there are a significant number of bullish fundamentals to come into play in the near term such as Fidelity being in their final stages of testing their crypto trading platform, and also Bakkt which will launch later this year.
Thanks everyone for taking the time to check out my potentially bullish TA scenario for Bitcoin. Feel free to give me a follow here on Uptrennd, and on twitter for more crypto TA and articles. (twitter.com/Crypt0Unicorn)
I'd love to hear your feedback and thoughts about this analysis and the direction you think we are headed.
- Cryptounicorn
An ascending triangle is now forming on
BTC on the weekly/daily chart, and I haven't really seen anyone charting this potentially bullish scenario. An ascending triangle is a trading pattern in which a series of higher lows is made with a strong horizontal resistance which often takes being tested and rejected multiple times. It is typically a continuation pattern that results in a bullish break.In our case, we have a very strong resistance level at the $4200 - 4300 range in which we have tested and been rejected 4 times so far. However; with each rejection, we have found support at a higher low after each rejection thus making the ascending triangle currently in play. For the last two weeks, we have also been trading within a short-term ascending price channel (White lines) in which higher highs and higher lows are being formed. The down-trending green line is the continuation of the trendline of the descending triangle continued which serves as a very strong resistance that we have yet to break.
In the next two weeks, if we remain in the ascending price channel, we could see a potential retest of the 4100-4300 range which would have a greater likelihood of a solid breakout than the previous rejection we just faced at these levels. A breakout and close above the green descending line would mark the first success in breaking this seemingly bullet-proof resistance line and also break the strong resistance at the same time. If we indeed manage to break out with significant volume and close a daily candle above $4300, there is minimal resistance until we hit $5500.
The resistance priced at $6100 - 6200 however likely remains likely the strongest resistance level bitcoin has ever had to overcome as prior support becomes new resistance. It may take multiple attempts and likely a strong fundamental catalyst event to break this heavy resistance. If in fact, we do close above $6000 with supporting volume on the daily and also a weekly with strong green candles, this may in fact be able to mark the end of the bear market.
The ascending triangle however doesn't hit its apex until mid-August. The closer we get to the apex of this ascending triangle, the more likely that we will get a strong breakout of the trade pattern. The MACD on the daily and weekly has been looking bullish although a bearish crossover on the MACD on the daily is possible in the next couple days which could break the support on our ascending channel which would make likely a further fall to the support at $3480 - 3500 likely before another attempt at breaking the green descending resistance could be attempted.
If we however, break below the support of the ascending triangle, there are not many support levels and we could potentially see dramatically lower lows towards the $2500 level. I am however feeling pretty confident that the bottom is likely in for Bitcoin, and there are a significant number of bullish fundamentals to come into play in the near term such as Fidelity being in their final stages of testing their crypto trading platform, and also Bakkt which will launch later this year.
Thanks everyone for taking the time to check out my potentially bullish TA scenario for Bitcoin. Feel free to give me a follow here on Uptrennd, and on twitter for more crypto TA and articles. (twitter.com/Crypt0Unicorn)
I'd love to hear your feedback and thoughts about this analysis and the direction you think we are headed.
- Cryptounicorn
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.