BTC Macro Update: Bull Slaughter Incoming
Updated
This post is a warning to all the bulls out there who think fundamentals trump all technical indicators and long term market patterns. The crypto fear and greed index has reached a new high of 80 which illustrates the extreme greed in the current market. We have seen a lengthy period during which finding someone with a bearish outlook on social media or Youtube has been like searching for a needle in a haystack.
The time for a big market correction is coming, especially considering that we never saw one since 3.8k. We have seen the initial stages of weakness in the market by having a flash crash from the 11.8-12k region as predicted in earlier posts of mine. We may or may not go back up there to retest it because the CME gap has not yet been fully filled due to the carefully orchestrated weekend pump. Yes, we decisively broke the long term linear downtrend line but we are still only barely above the logarithmic downtrend line. In the last market cycle we also breached this line for a short period to trap the bulls before our final capitulation. The price must stay above it and find support on it in order for the market to remain bullish. The bulls don't have much to work with because losing the 10.8k region will mean breaking back below the line.
We currently have multiple bearish confluences including:
1) a second rejection from our multi year support turned resistance line that goes all the way back to the previous MT Gox bear market
2) a rejection from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement calculated from the 14k top to the 3.8k bottom
3) a potential rejection from the logarithmic downtrend line on longer term time frames
4) extremely overbought technical indicators such as daily RSI
5) the crypto fear and greed index being at 80
Bear in mind that we also made a higher high in the last market cycle to tap into the liquidity of euphoric bulls. I am more accurate with my long term predictions such as correctly predicting the capitulation from 10.5 to 3.8k and loss of the long term logarithmic support line when everyone was screaming that we are about to enter a new bull market. If I am correct about this prediction, people who dumped their life savings into bitcoin here might see 75-80% of their net worth disappear during the next 6 months or so. If I am totally wrong, you can come back here and laugh at me. But hey, at least take some time to look at the correlations in this chart in order to come to an unbiased conclusion.
See you in a future post!
The time for a big market correction is coming, especially considering that we never saw one since 3.8k. We have seen the initial stages of weakness in the market by having a flash crash from the 11.8-12k region as predicted in earlier posts of mine. We may or may not go back up there to retest it because the CME gap has not yet been fully filled due to the carefully orchestrated weekend pump. Yes, we decisively broke the long term linear downtrend line but we are still only barely above the logarithmic downtrend line. In the last market cycle we also breached this line for a short period to trap the bulls before our final capitulation. The price must stay above it and find support on it in order for the market to remain bullish. The bulls don't have much to work with because losing the 10.8k region will mean breaking back below the line.
We currently have multiple bearish confluences including:
1) a second rejection from our multi year support turned resistance line that goes all the way back to the previous MT Gox bear market
2) a rejection from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement calculated from the 14k top to the 3.8k bottom
3) a potential rejection from the logarithmic downtrend line on longer term time frames
4) extremely overbought technical indicators such as daily RSI
5) the crypto fear and greed index being at 80
Bear in mind that we also made a higher high in the last market cycle to tap into the liquidity of euphoric bulls. I am more accurate with my long term predictions such as correctly predicting the capitulation from 10.5 to 3.8k and loss of the long term logarithmic support line when everyone was screaming that we are about to enter a new bull market. If I am correct about this prediction, people who dumped their life savings into bitcoin here might see 75-80% of their net worth disappear during the next 6 months or so. If I am totally wrong, you can come back here and laugh at me. But hey, at least take some time to look at the correlations in this chart in order to come to an unbiased conclusion.
See you in a future post!
Note
I would also like to point out that we have seen a massive liquidation event of over 1 billion dollars in the last 24 hours. This illustrates the current greed of overleveraged longs.
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