Stock to Flow BTC model is a good price predictor
I added the S2F indicator to the BLX weekly chart. I discovered the values the S2F model predicts have occurred in a few months after. For example,
6/18/10 S2F predicted a 42 cent price; price was achieved 11/1/10, 4.5 months later.
3/14/11 S2F predicted a $3.71 price; price was achieved 4/25/11, 1.4 months later.
10/24/11 S2F predicted a $12.77 price; price was achieved 8/13/12, 9.7 months later.
12/10/12 S2F predicted a $226.46 price; price was achieved 4/8/13, 4.0 months later.
3/14/16 S2F predicted a $784 price; price was achieved 11/14/16, 8.0 months later.
7/25/16 S2F predicted a $6167 price; price was achieved 10/23/17, 15 months later.
8/21/17 S2F predicted a $10648 price; price was achieved 11/27/17, 3.2 months later.
11/26/18 S2F predicted a $11786 price; price was achieved 6/24/19, 7.0 months later.
On 5/18/20, a few days after the 2020 halving, S2F predicted a $115,615 price. Since the farthest projection has been achieved 15 months later, then I can see that price being achieved later in 2021.
On 10/26/20 S2F predicted $158103. I can also see that price being achieved later this year. Sometimes the price greatly exceeds the projected price like Dec 2017 when the BTC price went to $19764, 85.6% above the 8/21/17 $10648 predicted price. If that $158,103 prediction is overshot 85.6% again, the BTC could be peaking at $293,000 or maybe more later this year.
6/18/10 S2F predicted a 42 cent price; price was achieved 11/1/10, 4.5 months later.
3/14/11 S2F predicted a $3.71 price; price was achieved 4/25/11, 1.4 months later.
10/24/11 S2F predicted a $12.77 price; price was achieved 8/13/12, 9.7 months later.
12/10/12 S2F predicted a $226.46 price; price was achieved 4/8/13, 4.0 months later.
3/14/16 S2F predicted a $784 price; price was achieved 11/14/16, 8.0 months later.
7/25/16 S2F predicted a $6167 price; price was achieved 10/23/17, 15 months later.
8/21/17 S2F predicted a $10648 price; price was achieved 11/27/17, 3.2 months later.
11/26/18 S2F predicted a $11786 price; price was achieved 6/24/19, 7.0 months later.
On 5/18/20, a few days after the 2020 halving, S2F predicted a $115,615 price. Since the farthest projection has been achieved 15 months later, then I can see that price being achieved later in 2021.
On 10/26/20 S2F predicted $158103. I can also see that price being achieved later this year. Sometimes the price greatly exceeds the projected price like Dec 2017 when the BTC price went to $19764, 85.6% above the 8/21/17 $10648 predicted price. If that $158,103 prediction is overshot 85.6% again, the BTC could be peaking at $293,000 or maybe more later this year.
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