BTC analysis with time and price prognosis
Writing down my ideas.
I think we are in the C-Wave down from a extended B wave after hitting all time high in 2021.
Over all in the 4th wave correction of the supirior 3 Wave -> 5th Wave to come for the 130k+ targets to finish the supirior 3rd Wave
My conclusion of the past:
- RSI is holding on monthly
- exact months can be extrapolated from the past "Bear" Trend
- the Bull trends is reduced every cycle
- increase maturity, popularity and institutional investors reducing the proability of 80% crashes anymore. See S&P 500, where only big black swan events is causing this kind of crashes
- the bottom is always relativ to the monthly cross over of the RSI to the previous top and related to Fibonacci
- the drop in price is everytime reduced by 20%, when measuring from RED cross-over "highest price" of the month of the cross over to the lowest price of BTC.
Preconditions:
- we are still in an overall bull trend
- lowest price of BTC is not below 12k USD to not go into the Wave 1 territory
- everyone is so bearish calling for 10k USD BTC gives me the opinion, we are way oversold "soon"
- economical special events, like COVID or WAR could lead to much more downside, but it should snap back quite fast to keep the idea valid
Based on my analysis of the past, my prediction is a
- bottom in October 2022
- BTC price between 20k USD and 23k USD
- a rise of BTC price within Q1 and Q2 of 2022, with a huge decline in Q3 and Q4
- If Q1 & Q2 is bullish on BTC two possibilities could happen
-> BTC bull run with 70-120% increase in price and only single ALTS get pumped
-> BTC side was, with huge bull run in majority of the ALT coins to compensate
Validation of the theory:
- ALT / BTC prices are increasing over the next days
- on weekly and daily "GREEN" cross over of the MACD, without BTC crossing "GREEN" on MACD
- if BTC on monthly MACD is crossing "GREEN" hard decline" within days
- keep the "short" term bottom above 30k, to keep euphory of the BTC Moon boys high
- millions of Youtube posts with the title "BTC to the Moon; BTC to 130k; BTC Bottom is in; BTC to 1mil USD" - FUD at tops
- FED is only increasing 3 times the interests until August, with 0.25 or 0.5 increase
- increased volume on tops
I think we are in the C-Wave down from a extended B wave after hitting all time high in 2021.
Over all in the 4th wave correction of the supirior 3 Wave -> 5th Wave to come for the 130k+ targets to finish the supirior 3rd Wave
My conclusion of the past:
- RSI is holding on monthly
- exact months can be extrapolated from the past "Bear" Trend
- the Bull trends is reduced every cycle
- increase maturity, popularity and institutional investors reducing the proability of 80% crashes anymore. See S&P 500, where only big black swan events is causing this kind of crashes
- the bottom is always relativ to the monthly cross over of the RSI to the previous top and related to Fibonacci
- the drop in price is everytime reduced by 20%, when measuring from RED cross-over "highest price" of the month of the cross over to the lowest price of BTC.
Preconditions:
- we are still in an overall bull trend
- lowest price of BTC is not below 12k USD to not go into the Wave 1 territory
- everyone is so bearish calling for 10k USD BTC gives me the opinion, we are way oversold "soon"
- economical special events, like COVID or WAR could lead to much more downside, but it should snap back quite fast to keep the idea valid
Based on my analysis of the past, my prediction is a
- bottom in October 2022
- BTC price between 20k USD and 23k USD
- a rise of BTC price within Q1 and Q2 of 2022, with a huge decline in Q3 and Q4
- If Q1 & Q2 is bullish on BTC two possibilities could happen
-> BTC bull run with 70-120% increase in price and only single ALTS get pumped
-> BTC side was, with huge bull run in majority of the ALT coins to compensate
Validation of the theory:
- ALT / BTC prices are increasing over the next days
- on weekly and daily "GREEN" cross over of the MACD, without BTC crossing "GREEN" on MACD
- if BTC on monthly MACD is crossing "GREEN" hard decline" within days
- keep the "short" term bottom above 30k, to keep euphory of the BTC Moon boys high
- millions of Youtube posts with the title "BTC to the Moon; BTC to 130k; BTC Bottom is in; BTC to 1mil USD" - FUD at tops
- FED is only increasing 3 times the interests until August, with 0.25 or 0.5 increase
- increased volume on tops
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.