Implications of this breakout for longterm BTC trend
So yes, BTC is apparently bullisher than I thought, at least short-term, because longterm I'm always a BTC uber bull :)
But short-term, I had several reasons to think that a weekly capitulation bar was very likely:
1. Too much bullishness and optimism (contrarian indicator)
2. Number of daily transactions still below ATH (although now finally approaching ATH level), therefore metcalfe price not high enough
3. Crypto fear and greed index at or above 60 (alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/)
4. Weekly and 3d stoch RSI on overbought since ages
5. Drying up volume after a strong impulse move down in an ascending triangle
6. Bearmarkets in BTC like to end with a strong capitulation weekly bar on large volume
And most importantly:
7. Cycles getting longer, meaning that the low we had in 2015 in January, would come a few months later, around April-May.
But apparently, BTC does something else. That's why one has to love BTC. No matter how long you're in the market, BTC always makes you rethink your assumptions.
That's why I was thinking, what implications would it have on the longterm BTC chart, if we'd enter the bullmarket now, the chances of which have increased a lot, especially if the weekly candle closes above 4600.
I've drawn two scenarios: One where BTC slows down, every cycle until now was 574 days longer than the previous one.
Of course, we don't have enough data points yet, but if we are to extrapolate this, we'd get the next ATH in July 2023 at around 200k.
But it seems to me that this theory might be wrong, given that BTC wants to continue the bullmarket prematurely, thus, as fast as the last time, with no signs of slowing down.
This would mean that the cycle duration would from now on stay more or less the same: 4 years, strictly governed by the halvings.
In anticipation of the halvings, the price already starts to rise at least one year before the halvings, as it seems.
Therefore we would get the next ATH at the end of 2021 already, but then not quite as high, "only" around 100k.
So, as BTC appears faster and bullisher than I thought, what do you think, will the cycles get longer or not?
Both could work out, although the faster breakout here would favor a bit the 2021 ATH version.
But then again, the logic dictates that as bigger as something gets, the more "inertia" it should have. Guess we'll need new data points for 2019 :)
Now, when is a good time to enter this market?
I personally never enter a FOMO, especially not when all indicators are overbought. If indeed the weekly candles continue green and get above the 5k range, it will be good to enter when weekly stoch RSI
gets oversold again, after a few strong dumpds, i.e. from 6500 to the 4000 range, provided the logarithmic resistance now acts as strong support.
I've written a lot now, but this move here is fascinating, and therefore needs thinking and re-adjustments for the longterm BTC trend might be necessary. Neutral because I wanna see the weekly candle close first to be sure.
But short-term, I had several reasons to think that a weekly capitulation bar was very likely:
1. Too much bullishness and optimism (contrarian indicator)
2. Number of daily transactions still below ATH (although now finally approaching ATH level), therefore metcalfe price not high enough
3. Crypto fear and greed index at or above 60 (alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/)
4. Weekly and 3d stoch RSI on overbought since ages
5. Drying up volume after a strong impulse move down in an ascending triangle
6. Bearmarkets in BTC like to end with a strong capitulation weekly bar on large volume
And most importantly:
7. Cycles getting longer, meaning that the low we had in 2015 in January, would come a few months later, around April-May.
But apparently, BTC does something else. That's why one has to love BTC. No matter how long you're in the market, BTC always makes you rethink your assumptions.
That's why I was thinking, what implications would it have on the longterm BTC chart, if we'd enter the bullmarket now, the chances of which have increased a lot, especially if the weekly candle closes above 4600.
I've drawn two scenarios: One where BTC slows down, every cycle until now was 574 days longer than the previous one.
Of course, we don't have enough data points yet, but if we are to extrapolate this, we'd get the next ATH in July 2023 at around 200k.
But it seems to me that this theory might be wrong, given that BTC wants to continue the bullmarket prematurely, thus, as fast as the last time, with no signs of slowing down.
This would mean that the cycle duration would from now on stay more or less the same: 4 years, strictly governed by the halvings.
In anticipation of the halvings, the price already starts to rise at least one year before the halvings, as it seems.
Therefore we would get the next ATH at the end of 2021 already, but then not quite as high, "only" around 100k.
So, as BTC appears faster and bullisher than I thought, what do you think, will the cycles get longer or not?
Both could work out, although the faster breakout here would favor a bit the 2021 ATH version.
But then again, the logic dictates that as bigger as something gets, the more "inertia" it should have. Guess we'll need new data points for 2019 :)
Now, when is a good time to enter this market?
I personally never enter a FOMO, especially not when all indicators are overbought. If indeed the weekly candles continue green and get above the 5k range, it will be good to enter when weekly stoch RSI
gets oversold again, after a few strong dumpds, i.e. from 6500 to the 4000 range, provided the logarithmic resistance now acts as strong support.
I've written a lot now, but this move here is fascinating, and therefore needs thinking and re-adjustments for the longterm BTC trend might be necessary. Neutral because I wanna see the weekly candle close first to be sure.
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