Possible Bitcoin 2021 top on October 9th if this plays out
In the previous two bitcoin halving cycles if you take the number of days between the bottom of the bear market and the top of the following bull market cycle with the halving in the middle, you will find that.
50.5% of the total days fall between the bottom and the halving. The other 49.5% of the days fall between the halving and the market top.
You can see this laid out on the chart for the two previous cycle and a possible top date of October 9th for the current 2021 cycle.
In 2012 halving cycle there were 742 days between bottom and top.
375 days (50.5%) from the bottom (19th Nov 2011) and the halving (28 Nov 2012)
and 367 (49.5%) days between the halving (29 Nov 2012) and the cycle top (30 Nov 2013)
In the 2016 halving cycle there were 1068 days between bottom and top
540 days (50.5%) from the bottom (14 Jan 2015) and the halving (9 Jul 2016)
and 522 days (49.5%) between the halving (9 Jul 2016) and the cycle top (17 Dec 2017)
In the 2020 halving cycle if the ratio of 50.5% : 49.5% between bottom and halving and halving and top remains the same then we can get a pretty close approximation of when a top might be
We know we have 520 days between the bear market bottom (15 Dec 2018) and the halving (18 May 2020)
If 520 days is 50.5% that means the whole cycle (100%) would be about 1029 days. Taking our cycle top to October 9th 2021
This would give 509 days (49.5%) between the halving and the top.
Now of course it could be different this time the cycle may extend out much longer who knows.
However if we start going truly parabolic in late September towards this October 9th date with 10k+ daily candles and price is in the 200-300k range then I will be looking at this very seriously and considering exit options.
It's just another piece of data I"m going to be using and looking at to give me and indication of a time to exit.
50.5% of the total days fall between the bottom and the halving. The other 49.5% of the days fall between the halving and the market top.
You can see this laid out on the chart for the two previous cycle and a possible top date of October 9th for the current 2021 cycle.
In 2012 halving cycle there were 742 days between bottom and top.
375 days (50.5%) from the bottom (19th Nov 2011) and the halving (28 Nov 2012)
and 367 (49.5%) days between the halving (29 Nov 2012) and the cycle top (30 Nov 2013)
In the 2016 halving cycle there were 1068 days between bottom and top
540 days (50.5%) from the bottom (14 Jan 2015) and the halving (9 Jul 2016)
and 522 days (49.5%) between the halving (9 Jul 2016) and the cycle top (17 Dec 2017)
In the 2020 halving cycle if the ratio of 50.5% : 49.5% between bottom and halving and halving and top remains the same then we can get a pretty close approximation of when a top might be
We know we have 520 days between the bear market bottom (15 Dec 2018) and the halving (18 May 2020)
If 520 days is 50.5% that means the whole cycle (100%) would be about 1029 days. Taking our cycle top to October 9th 2021
This would give 509 days (49.5%) between the halving and the top.
Now of course it could be different this time the cycle may extend out much longer who knows.
However if we start going truly parabolic in late September towards this October 9th date with 10k+ daily candles and price is in the 200-300k range then I will be looking at this very seriously and considering exit options.
It's just another piece of data I"m going to be using and looking at to give me and indication of a time to exit.
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