Bitcoin Macro Picture Update: The Bear Extinction Event
Updated
This is it. We finally got the breakout we were looking for. Unfortunately for the bears, we only got a meager correction before another rip to the upside. Those who follow me know that I predicted that we would create a macro higher high to trap the bulls and fill the CME gap at 11.8k before our final capitulation. However, I did think that we would drop to the 6k region before we got this move (based on previous fractals). I was pondering about a possibility that these two macro highs could merge together without a big correction in between for quite a while and now this less preferred scenario of mine was confirmed. Therefore, I closed my shorts in the 9-10k region (close to where I opened them) for a small loss and established a new short ladder all the way up to 11.8k. Some of the low leverage shorts have now been filled (liquidation price 15k+).
We have seen a cascade of shorts getting liquidated and I think this is only the beginning even though only 25% of the Bitmex positions are currently shorts. Most people are currently euphoric and irrational so the bear slaughter will most likely continue for a bit until the whales come for the bulls. Hey, at least Bitmex paid me a lot for holding my shorts open during the excruciatingly boring last few months.
The biggest reasons why I am still bearish:
1. We have a massive logarithmic downtrend resistance line that has not yet been broken. I am betting on a wick going slightly through this.
2. We have a very strong support turned resistance line that used to support Bitcoin's price all the way back to the previous MT Gox Bear Market. We have already once confirmed this as staunch resistance.
This bear here will get slaughtered and turn into a bull once we establish support above 11.8k. Otherwise I will continue to keep my shorts open for the eventual move to the downside. Come and get me! (please don't) :(
We have seen a cascade of shorts getting liquidated and I think this is only the beginning even though only 25% of the Bitmex positions are currently shorts. Most people are currently euphoric and irrational so the bear slaughter will most likely continue for a bit until the whales come for the bulls. Hey, at least Bitmex paid me a lot for holding my shorts open during the excruciatingly boring last few months.
The biggest reasons why I am still bearish:
1. We have a massive logarithmic downtrend resistance line that has not yet been broken. I am betting on a wick going slightly through this.
2. We have a very strong support turned resistance line that used to support Bitcoin's price all the way back to the previous MT Gox Bear Market. We have already once confirmed this as staunch resistance.
This bear here will get slaughtered and turn into a bull once we establish support above 11.8k. Otherwise I will continue to keep my shorts open for the eventual move to the downside. Come and get me! (please don't) :(
Note
Another minor change I have made to this macro chart is that I have slightly prolonged the estimated length of this bear market to match the duration increase ratio of the last two bear markets before their breakouts above their bull flags. The rough estimate is now 1862 days but it could easily be shorter though.
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