Bitcoin's 90% of total bull cycle price move is coming
For people who are bored with the market now (and I am one of them), let me remind you that Bitcoin follows Pareto's principle: 80% of its price move is made in the last 20% of the time in the bull cycle. Actually it's about 90% of the price move in the last 20% of the time in the bull cycle.
1st Bull Cycle: 7/18/10 $0.06 beginning of trading on exchanges
3/31/11 $0.78 End of intermediate wave (4)
6/9/11 $31.90 Bull Cycle top
97.7% of the total price move was made from the end of intermediate wave (4) to the bull cycle top. That amount of time was 21.5% of the total bull cycle time.
2nd Bull Cycle: 11/18/11 $2.01 Bear market low
7/6/13 $65.00 End of intermediate wave (4)
11/30/13 $1177.19 Bull Cycle top
94.6% of the total price move was made from the end of intermediate wave (4) to the bull cycle top. That amount of time was 19.7% of the total bull cycle time.
3rd Bull Cycle: 1/14/15 $163.88 Bear Market low
7/16/17 $1814.76 End of intermediate wave (4)
12/17/17 $19764.51 Bull cycle top
91.6% of the total price move was made from the end of intermediate wave (4) to the bull cycle top. That amount of time was 14.1% of the total bull cycle time.
4th Bull Cycle: 12/15/18 $3148.33 Bear Market low
1/24/22 $33025.14 Probable End of intermediate wave (4)
12/15/22? $250000? Bull Cycle Top?
The average of the first 3 cycles was 94.6% of the move was made in the last 18.4% of the total bull cycle time. Let's test a 12/15/22 top at $250,000: If that was the top date and price, then would it roughly fit in with the first 3 bull cycles?
87.9% of the total price move would be made from the probable end of intermediate wave (4) to the bull cycle guessed top date and price. 1/24/22 to 12/15/22 would be 22.3% of the total price time.
That would be a rough fit in time and price move percentages to the first 3 bull cycles.
It may seem boring now, but exciting times are coming later this year IMO.
1st Bull Cycle: 7/18/10 $0.06 beginning of trading on exchanges
3/31/11 $0.78 End of intermediate wave (4)
6/9/11 $31.90 Bull Cycle top
97.7% of the total price move was made from the end of intermediate wave (4) to the bull cycle top. That amount of time was 21.5% of the total bull cycle time.
2nd Bull Cycle: 11/18/11 $2.01 Bear market low
7/6/13 $65.00 End of intermediate wave (4)
11/30/13 $1177.19 Bull Cycle top
94.6% of the total price move was made from the end of intermediate wave (4) to the bull cycle top. That amount of time was 19.7% of the total bull cycle time.
3rd Bull Cycle: 1/14/15 $163.88 Bear Market low
7/16/17 $1814.76 End of intermediate wave (4)
12/17/17 $19764.51 Bull cycle top
91.6% of the total price move was made from the end of intermediate wave (4) to the bull cycle top. That amount of time was 14.1% of the total bull cycle time.
4th Bull Cycle: 12/15/18 $3148.33 Bear Market low
1/24/22 $33025.14 Probable End of intermediate wave (4)
12/15/22? $250000? Bull Cycle Top?
The average of the first 3 cycles was 94.6% of the move was made in the last 18.4% of the total bull cycle time. Let's test a 12/15/22 top at $250,000: If that was the top date and price, then would it roughly fit in with the first 3 bull cycles?
87.9% of the total price move would be made from the probable end of intermediate wave (4) to the bull cycle guessed top date and price. 1/24/22 to 12/15/22 would be 22.3% of the total price time.
That would be a rough fit in time and price move percentages to the first 3 bull cycles.
It may seem boring now, but exciting times are coming later this year IMO.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.