BTC Long Term Outlook
Updated
Looks pretty straight forward for me. Another bull run in horizon.
Below are my reasons for this belief:
Fundamentals
- Next halving is coming in just over a year - May 2, 2024
- There were a few black swan events in the past year and price of btc managed to keep very strong still.
- The black swan events occurred due to human fault, and the trust in the traditional systems are broken. People are realizing slowly that crypto is actually much more secure and people friendly compared to the centralised traditional systems.
- Price of everything has risen in the past year to all time highs; houses, cars, lands, even groceries. Inflation is real. And to be able to hedge against inflation you need to but assets which are scarce by design - Bitcoin and Ethereum. (I expect Ethereum to be better in terms of hedge against inflation in the long term tbh - due to the new token economics after the merge)
On-Chain Data
- On-chain data shows the wallet addresses with equal or more than 0.1 btc balance and 1 btc balance are at an all time high.
- Address with equal or more than 1000 btc are at Sep 2019 levels, I take this positively as there are 440 less whales to dump their btc - all time high on this data was on Feb-March 2021 which is the first top of the 2021 run.
We can easily see that a lot of whales decided to sell out and probably triggered the bear run down. People have been accumulating and it shows by the amount of smaller addresses (retail) popping up and hitting all time high.
Indicators
ACMF (money flow) - still under 0, which is ok considering we are in a bear market. On the weekly chart it shows the only times we have had this low was close to the bottom of the cycles.
TLL RSI - One of the longest oversold stays on this indicator. I expect this indicator to make a move up soon and that will be one of our serious que in the short-medium term to validate this idea.
Hope you enjoyed it, if you did, please boost and comment what you think about it.
Thanks
Below are my reasons for this belief:
Fundamentals
- Next halving is coming in just over a year - May 2, 2024
- There were a few black swan events in the past year and price of btc managed to keep very strong still.
- The black swan events occurred due to human fault, and the trust in the traditional systems are broken. People are realizing slowly that crypto is actually much more secure and people friendly compared to the centralised traditional systems.
- Price of everything has risen in the past year to all time highs; houses, cars, lands, even groceries. Inflation is real. And to be able to hedge against inflation you need to but assets which are scarce by design - Bitcoin and Ethereum. (I expect Ethereum to be better in terms of hedge against inflation in the long term tbh - due to the new token economics after the merge)
On-Chain Data
- On-chain data shows the wallet addresses with equal or more than 0.1 btc balance and 1 btc balance are at an all time high.
- Address with equal or more than 1000 btc are at Sep 2019 levels, I take this positively as there are 440 less whales to dump their btc - all time high on this data was on Feb-March 2021 which is the first top of the 2021 run.
We can easily see that a lot of whales decided to sell out and probably triggered the bear run down. People have been accumulating and it shows by the amount of smaller addresses (retail) popping up and hitting all time high.
Indicators
ACMF (money flow) - still under 0, which is ok considering we are in a bear market. On the weekly chart it shows the only times we have had this low was close to the bottom of the cycles.
TLL RSI - One of the longest oversold stays on this indicator. I expect this indicator to make a move up soon and that will be one of our serious que in the short-medium term to validate this idea.
Hope you enjoyed it, if you did, please boost and comment what you think about it.
Thanks
Note
Beautiful green candle to start the new bull run.Trade active
This chart is looking so simple yet so powerful. I love bullish breakouts.
Trade active
Almost ATH. Thanks BTC for such a clean run.
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