Victor Cobra Calls The Shots Pt 2: Bitcoin Update - Bullish Yet?
Updated
Hey guys! I'm getting some positive feedback from some people - and it really means a lot, because this is a hobby of mine and I'm glad all the time I've spent analyzing this market hasn't totally been a waste.
I'm pretty tired at the moment, so I apologize if this analysis turns out to seem a bit *sluggish.* I'm taking a break for at least this upcoming weekend to enjoy some time away from the market. Even if things go south, I'm proud of what I've been able to do over the last few months, in terms of forecasting potential breakouts or breakdowns.
In my recent analyses of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market overall, I've been cautiously bullish. If for some strange reason you read everything I post carefully, you'll see that I was closely watching the linear trendlines from the ATH to the November breakdown on the Coinbase and Bitfinex charts. Soon after we broke both those downtrends, we also broke out of the falling wedge pattern to the upside. I used Litecoin to forecast this move, and entered long term positions on LTC and ETH at $32 and $107 respectively. Since then, I've become bullish on the whole market. To me, those massive downtrend breakouts on LTC and ETH were signals that bear market was close to ending. I could still be wrong though. It would really be a slap in the face if I AM wrong, because all my purchases and trades since September are in profit.
Now to the analysis:
I had a funny feeling something was amiss when Bitcoin wicked RIGHT to the previous high of 4198 on Binance before the recent big selloff. This was a CALCULATED move, meaning that some entity (entities) do not want people to be sure of which direction the market is headed. Bitcoin has been long term bullish since the very beginning, so we can assume that bulls will always be in control on bigger timeframes. What this means is, the majority of people in the market want more Bitcoin rather than less. Over time, demand outstrips supply, and price rises. This is why I think most of the recent manipulation is an accumulation strategy. I'm seeing it everywhere. Alts will seesaw up and down between support and resistance rather erratically, setting off stop losses and stop buys everywhere. They'll even go below supports or above resistances before whipsawing back in the other direction. Then, once the resistance has been weakened enough, they blast up, only to do the same thing in the next resistance area. I bet many traders are getting completely destroyed right now. Or if they're good, raking in amazing profits.
Take yesterday with Bitcoin, for instance. We had a huge wick that took us below our perceived support, but it was bought up very quickly, leaving many people perplexed. Now, this could have just been a test dump before the true dump, so I haven't ruled out a drop here. However, a drop here would likely send us below the new potential log trend line I've been looking at (in red on my chart). This would be very bad, and we'd likely see a new low. If the market is indeed bullish, as I suspect it is, we should actually move up here soon and target the descending triangle resistance (light blue). This would give us a target around 4800 before heading back down to test the broken 4K resistance area as support. This is what I see as the most likely bullish scenario (green squiggle).
Other possible scenarios actually do include a move straight up to 9.4K to test the broken log trend line from the previous bull market as resistance. This would be a FOMO rally, to be sure, and it would be a great selling opportunity. And of course we still can't rule out a further extension of the bear market, since we haven't seen a significant higher high yet. We made an equal high, but this is not convincing enough. As I said, that was an intentional move by market makers to confuse us.
In the event we do break down, we have pretty strong supports in the green zones. Since confidence and sentiment has been built up in the market, I expect a lot of buying to happen if we break below 3K, rather than selling. However, it would also cause a lot of technical damage to the chart, so the bear market would likely extend at least another year. If you've read my posts, you'll know I speculated that the earliest end to the bear market would be January/February 2019. It'll be funny if that turns out to be the case.
Anyway, I need to sleep. Even though I've done well in this market over the last several months, and even though I continue to make generally good calls, I can be wrong just like anyone else. And it is very possible that the bottom isn't in. I'm psychologically prepared for that. The good news is, if we go lower, the bear market will probably last a LONG time, and I can buy more eventually at much cheaper prices.
By the way, as a bonus, I'm updating my list of some strong alts vs weak alts (based on CURRENT price action, not long term)
STONG ALTS:
ETH
LTC
EOS
ICX
ONT
NEO
BAT
BNB
SLT
RLC
TRX (just correcting, but still very bullish)
WEAK ALTS:
NANO
XVG
WTC (although this one might be about to turn around, finally)
XRP
XLM
GVT
ENG
This is an incomplete list, and just comprised of the coins I've been looking at. I can't look at too many coins or I'll go crazy. If someone wants me to do an analysis on a particular coin, drop me a line and I can post a chart next week.
That's it for now! Time to take a well-earned break.
Good luck. This is not financial advice. This is purely my opinion and speculation - to be used for educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
I'm pretty tired at the moment, so I apologize if this analysis turns out to seem a bit *sluggish.* I'm taking a break for at least this upcoming weekend to enjoy some time away from the market. Even if things go south, I'm proud of what I've been able to do over the last few months, in terms of forecasting potential breakouts or breakdowns.
In my recent analyses of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market overall, I've been cautiously bullish. If for some strange reason you read everything I post carefully, you'll see that I was closely watching the linear trendlines from the ATH to the November breakdown on the Coinbase and Bitfinex charts. Soon after we broke both those downtrends, we also broke out of the falling wedge pattern to the upside. I used Litecoin to forecast this move, and entered long term positions on LTC and ETH at $32 and $107 respectively. Since then, I've become bullish on the whole market. To me, those massive downtrend breakouts on LTC and ETH were signals that bear market was close to ending. I could still be wrong though. It would really be a slap in the face if I AM wrong, because all my purchases and trades since September are in profit.
Now to the analysis:
I had a funny feeling something was amiss when Bitcoin wicked RIGHT to the previous high of 4198 on Binance before the recent big selloff. This was a CALCULATED move, meaning that some entity (entities) do not want people to be sure of which direction the market is headed. Bitcoin has been long term bullish since the very beginning, so we can assume that bulls will always be in control on bigger timeframes. What this means is, the majority of people in the market want more Bitcoin rather than less. Over time, demand outstrips supply, and price rises. This is why I think most of the recent manipulation is an accumulation strategy. I'm seeing it everywhere. Alts will seesaw up and down between support and resistance rather erratically, setting off stop losses and stop buys everywhere. They'll even go below supports or above resistances before whipsawing back in the other direction. Then, once the resistance has been weakened enough, they blast up, only to do the same thing in the next resistance area. I bet many traders are getting completely destroyed right now. Or if they're good, raking in amazing profits.
Take yesterday with Bitcoin, for instance. We had a huge wick that took us below our perceived support, but it was bought up very quickly, leaving many people perplexed. Now, this could have just been a test dump before the true dump, so I haven't ruled out a drop here. However, a drop here would likely send us below the new potential log trend line I've been looking at (in red on my chart). This would be very bad, and we'd likely see a new low. If the market is indeed bullish, as I suspect it is, we should actually move up here soon and target the descending triangle resistance (light blue). This would give us a target around 4800 before heading back down to test the broken 4K resistance area as support. This is what I see as the most likely bullish scenario (green squiggle).
Other possible scenarios actually do include a move straight up to 9.4K to test the broken log trend line from the previous bull market as resistance. This would be a FOMO rally, to be sure, and it would be a great selling opportunity. And of course we still can't rule out a further extension of the bear market, since we haven't seen a significant higher high yet. We made an equal high, but this is not convincing enough. As I said, that was an intentional move by market makers to confuse us.
In the event we do break down, we have pretty strong supports in the green zones. Since confidence and sentiment has been built up in the market, I expect a lot of buying to happen if we break below 3K, rather than selling. However, it would also cause a lot of technical damage to the chart, so the bear market would likely extend at least another year. If you've read my posts, you'll know I speculated that the earliest end to the bear market would be January/February 2019. It'll be funny if that turns out to be the case.
Anyway, I need to sleep. Even though I've done well in this market over the last several months, and even though I continue to make generally good calls, I can be wrong just like anyone else. And it is very possible that the bottom isn't in. I'm psychologically prepared for that. The good news is, if we go lower, the bear market will probably last a LONG time, and I can buy more eventually at much cheaper prices.
By the way, as a bonus, I'm updating my list of some strong alts vs weak alts (based on CURRENT price action, not long term)
STONG ALTS:
ETH
LTC
EOS
ICX
ONT
NEO
BAT
BNB
SLT
RLC
TRX (just correcting, but still very bullish)
WEAK ALTS:
NANO
XVG
WTC (although this one might be about to turn around, finally)
XRP
XLM
GVT
ENG
This is an incomplete list, and just comprised of the coins I've been looking at. I can't look at too many coins or I'll go crazy. If someone wants me to do an analysis on a particular coin, drop me a line and I can post a chart next week.
That's it for now! Time to take a well-earned break.
Good luck. This is not financial advice. This is purely my opinion and speculation - to be used for educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Note
It doesn't really look like this chart has updated, but we're holding this support so far. Things actually look fairly weak. A big selloff is becoming increasingly more likely. We will have to see if buyers can show strength here (also room to go a little lower). Otherwise, we may have to make a new low to attract demand. Conflicting signals, to be sure. A lot of things have been pointing to the bottom being in, but right now I'm less confident. I may post here less for a bit. I'm working on some other things right now, and the break from updating my charts I took over the weekend was good. Note
If we end up moving up from here and not dumping, it would actually be incredibly bullish.Note
Weird that BLX is delayed by a day or so. Will have to use another chart for my next Bitcoin analysis, but I used this because of its length - in order to show a possible log trend line. In any case, it turns out that move lower yesterday, since it had no follow through, was a fake move. I've been seeing a lot of moves like this all over the market, and if we have indeed bottomed, it's a sign of accumulation.
Note
The only issue I see here is that we're pretty much right back to where we were pre-dump. If we can't actually push higher through resistance here, we can easily have a more sustained breakdown. Based on what's been happening in the market over the last month, I would say my bias is still overall to the upside, but I guess we'll see what happens.
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