A New Theory Where BTC Might Bottom Out - FBB Analysis
Updated
Hi guys,
Have a look at this chart. The lines are Fibonacci Bollinger Bands (free indicator in Tradingview). I'm using a customised version that is more suitable for long-term projections, and this is something that I have just discovered.
I don't want to explain the obvious, you can see everything on the chart. According to this theory, if BTC movements play out the same way as in 2014/2015, we could soon see a strong push that gets rejected at the blue line, and a few weeks after a true bottom at the purple line, which represents the average.
Coincidentally, the level 30% below the purple line, where BTC bottomed out last time, will exactly be the level where the huge support zone from 1.3k-1k begins.
One major difference between both bear markets and a threat to this theory is the location of the 200W-MA, which needs to be broken in order for the price action to play out the same as it did in the previous bear market.
Still, after seeing this, I'm extremely interested in witnessing the true outcome. A strong move seems highly likely atm, and it could very well be to the upside. This would align with this theory as well. However, I'm not willing to trade solely based on this, but it's something worth keeping in mind and I'm going to track this carefully from now on.
Trade safe!
Have a look at this chart. The lines are Fibonacci Bollinger Bands (free indicator in Tradingview). I'm using a customised version that is more suitable for long-term projections, and this is something that I have just discovered.
I don't want to explain the obvious, you can see everything on the chart. According to this theory, if BTC movements play out the same way as in 2014/2015, we could soon see a strong push that gets rejected at the blue line, and a few weeks after a true bottom at the purple line, which represents the average.
Coincidentally, the level 30% below the purple line, where BTC bottomed out last time, will exactly be the level where the huge support zone from 1.3k-1k begins.
One major difference between both bear markets and a threat to this theory is the location of the 200W-MA, which needs to be broken in order for the price action to play out the same as it did in the previous bear market.
Still, after seeing this, I'm extremely interested in witnessing the true outcome. A strong move seems highly likely atm, and it could very well be to the upside. This would align with this theory as well. However, I'm not willing to trade solely based on this, but it's something worth keeping in mind and I'm going to track this carefully from now on.
Trade safe!
Note
The breakout this night complies with the theory so far. To be accurate, BTC needs to touch the blue line, which is approximately at 5490. I personally don't want to see BTC to drop to 1.3k, but it becomes much more likely if we actually go up from here and get rejected by the blue line. This will bring the ultimate bearishness into the market. Almost everybody is screaming bull market right now, so this would be a true capitulation scenario.
Fundamentals for BTC are strong though, so I'm not really sure if bulls would let BTC fall down to 1.3k. It'd probably be bought up sooner, but that's just my opinion based on the information I have available.
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