Bubble Trouble: A Multi-Decade Bitcoin Prediction (BTCUSD)
Updated
Admittingly, I am beyond fascinated by the structure and massive growth that Bitcoin has seen over the years. I don't mind acknowledging the fact that I was late to crypto and trading too, to an extent. My missing of the initial take-off has nothing to do with this prediction and I share it with no bias at all.
While I do believe that cryptocurrencies are now a staple in the world's financial system, I have little faith that Bitcoin will forever remain as the most dominant currency within the market. I say this solely because of BTCUSD's price structure and current wavemapping. I don't follow news too closely nor do I heavily consider many factors outside of the chart itself.
The use of Elliott Wave Theory allows me to minimize any personal bias and follow a close set of rules/guidelines to help find tremendous probabilities, both bullish and bearish in nature. Surely, I am familiar with the term bull and bear, but I regularly subscribe to neither. Rather, I surf wherever the profits may take me.
So now you know a bit about my logical stance, let's talk specifically about Bitcoin.
Having surged 202875423% since its inception, its easy to fall in love with the allure of its massive, historical strides however, I find an issue with Bitcoin not having made its proper corrections earlier in its journey. With a very dismal 38% correction after its rise to $31, one could consider this as a Wave 2 correction despite not reaching common retracement levels. The hypothetical Wave 2 also failed to erase the previous Wave 5 within primary Wave 1. There are no rules that dictate these actions as being invalidation indicators but they both go against what's most frequently observed (within impulsive waves).
Rather than considering the correction from $31 > $2 as Wave 2, logically I place this as a Wave B correction.
After B wave's termination, naturally its my expectation that C wave has then started. Usually within a diagonal wedge, I have the tendency to assume C wave will generally be a smaller diagonal pattern but its totally eligible to be in impulsive wave as well. Hint: A diagonal wave is constructed of 5 zig-zag waves.
The anatomy of a zig-zag is that both A and C waves have to be 5 wave moves. The are two options for 5 wave moves in Elliott Wave Theory - Impulsive or Diagonal waves. A zig-zag can have two impulsive waves between A and C but cannot have two diagonal waves between A and C (see below).
As stated in the image above, I believe that Bitcoin is currently in a wedge formation with Wave 1 being constructed of a zig-zag with two impulsive waves (A + C). Currently moving through the (C) wave of Bitcoin's primary first wave, I believe that we are more precisely within Wave (a) of Wave 4 - within (C) wave of Bitcoin's primary first wedge-wave. Based on my perception, the anatomy of (C) wave can be seen here:
As for Wave (a) of Wave 4, within (C) Wave (the current downside swing from
67K), I think that Bears will retain momentum until we strike the 11K-12K range. Placing the Fib tool on this specified range, it gives indication that Wave (b) of Wave 4 is likely (not promised) to reach between 103K-136K by early 2024; a 10x wave. Also placing the Fib tool on the range of 11K to 136K, a possible range for Wave (c) of Wave 4 can be determined as $2355 to $6255; a 95% drop - possible to come by early 2025.
If this drop does pan out, it will be very painful for not only Bitcoin holders but likely the crypto community as a whole - only for a brief period of time. We Elliotticians know that after Wave 4's correction, new heights are generally seen within Wave 5 (aside from truncated Wave 5s). Using the Fib tool to measure the total price range of Wave 4, we can also gather possible levels for the hypothetical Wave 5 that should come.
What target range do you think we'll see? Ready for this (tradingview.com/x/II23cNjT/) ?
The idea of Bitcoin hitting $1,000,000 by the year 2027 may seem farfetched to some. The idea of Bitcoin falling from $1,000,000 to $10 will surely seem farfetched to the rest but by 2030-2032 I expect this to come to fruition. From this level, I believe Bitcoin will initiate its next bullish wedge wave which should should once again hit astronomical levels, maybe near $1,700,000. Who knows!
The alternative to this idea is that Bitcoin gets Luna-bombed and drops from $1,000,000 to $0! For more actionable, daily and near real time analysis, join me on the waves (and don't forget your surfboard). No updates will be shared under this post; see my TradingView bio and let's connect.
While I do believe that cryptocurrencies are now a staple in the world's financial system, I have little faith that Bitcoin will forever remain as the most dominant currency within the market. I say this solely because of BTCUSD's price structure and current wavemapping. I don't follow news too closely nor do I heavily consider many factors outside of the chart itself.
The use of Elliott Wave Theory allows me to minimize any personal bias and follow a close set of rules/guidelines to help find tremendous probabilities, both bullish and bearish in nature. Surely, I am familiar with the term bull and bear, but I regularly subscribe to neither. Rather, I surf wherever the profits may take me.
So now you know a bit about my logical stance, let's talk specifically about Bitcoin.
Having surged 202875423% since its inception, its easy to fall in love with the allure of its massive, historical strides however, I find an issue with Bitcoin not having made its proper corrections earlier in its journey. With a very dismal 38% correction after its rise to $31, one could consider this as a Wave 2 correction despite not reaching common retracement levels. The hypothetical Wave 2 also failed to erase the previous Wave 5 within primary Wave 1. There are no rules that dictate these actions as being invalidation indicators but they both go against what's most frequently observed (within impulsive waves).
Rather than considering the correction from $31 > $2 as Wave 2, logically I place this as a Wave B correction.
After B wave's termination, naturally its my expectation that C wave has then started. Usually within a diagonal wedge, I have the tendency to assume C wave will generally be a smaller diagonal pattern but its totally eligible to be in impulsive wave as well. Hint: A diagonal wave is constructed of 5 zig-zag waves.
The anatomy of a zig-zag is that both A and C waves have to be 5 wave moves. The are two options for 5 wave moves in Elliott Wave Theory - Impulsive or Diagonal waves. A zig-zag can have two impulsive waves between A and C but cannot have two diagonal waves between A and C (see below).
As stated in the image above, I believe that Bitcoin is currently in a wedge formation with Wave 1 being constructed of a zig-zag with two impulsive waves (A + C). Currently moving through the (C) wave of Bitcoin's primary first wave, I believe that we are more precisely within Wave (a) of Wave 4 - within (C) wave of Bitcoin's primary first wedge-wave. Based on my perception, the anatomy of (C) wave can be seen here:
As for Wave (a) of Wave 4, within (C) Wave (the current downside swing from
67K), I think that Bears will retain momentum until we strike the 11K-12K range. Placing the Fib tool on this specified range, it gives indication that Wave (b) of Wave 4 is likely (not promised) to reach between 103K-136K by early 2024; a 10x wave. Also placing the Fib tool on the range of 11K to 136K, a possible range for Wave (c) of Wave 4 can be determined as $2355 to $6255; a 95% drop - possible to come by early 2025.If this drop does pan out, it will be very painful for not only Bitcoin holders but likely the crypto community as a whole - only for a brief period of time. We Elliotticians know that after Wave 4's correction, new heights are generally seen within Wave 5 (aside from truncated Wave 5s). Using the Fib tool to measure the total price range of Wave 4, we can also gather possible levels for the hypothetical Wave 5 that should come.
What target range do you think we'll see? Ready for this (tradingview.com/x/II23cNjT/) ?
The idea of Bitcoin hitting $1,000,000 by the year 2027 may seem farfetched to some. The idea of Bitcoin falling from $1,000,000 to $10 will surely seem farfetched to the rest but by 2030-2032 I expect this to come to fruition. From this level, I believe Bitcoin will initiate its next bullish wedge wave which should should once again hit astronomical levels, maybe near $1,700,000. Who knows!
The alternative to this idea is that Bitcoin gets Luna-bombed and drops from $1,000,000 to $0! For more actionable, daily and near real time analysis, join me on the waves (and don't forget your surfboard). No updates will be shared under this post; see my TradingView bio and let's connect.
Order cancelled
there are two macro options for btc but this idea is being cancelled as BTC has bottomed out.Note
Macro perspective is no invalidated however, I believe that the red (a) wave in the main chart has been finished.Said I wouldn't update this post however, I think there's been a major development and would hate to impress upon anyone the wrong ideas (though it happens at times).
Note
As stated above, I believe the bearish wave a (in red) is completed and we are now in motion for the red wave b with a target range between 68K (double top) and 130K (extended flat). A smaller target range should be found in 2023. Bitfcoin should also drop below 10K in 2025-2026. For more timely updates, check out my profile here on TradingView.Note
macro update --- Order cancelled
fibs do not agree with the internal structure and likely disagrees with the idea of Bitcoin being in a large diagonal/wedge wave.More than likely this (BTC) is just in a very aggressive impulsive form.
Join me on the waves, where its safe. discord.gg/QRPx6ShxMt
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