Bitcoin Market Cycle Analysis
This is my first published chart on Trading View. Here is a quick break down.
1. Vertical blue lines represent a 2 month market cycle.
2. Green shaded areas represent the bull market.
3. Red shaded areas represent the bear market.
4. Yellow shaded represent the consolidation phase of the market.
5. Purple vertical broken lines are the bitcoin halvening dates.
6. The sine function was used to provide a normal distribution visual.
What can we see here? Point of reference: 2 month cycles are referred to daily cycles.
1. Bull market cycles last for 13 daily cycles. 2.2 years
2. Bear market cycles last for 7 daily cycles. 1.1 years
3. Consolidation phases last for 4 daily cycles. .66 years
4. Total = 4 years plus or minus a couple of months
Where are we headed?
1. We are in the middle of the consolidation phase. The sine function is intended to illustrate the possible fractal of the 2015 consolidation phase. While the price action pattern does not play out exactly, we can see that from a time series perspective it representing the same behavior. In addition, if this consolidation is normally distributed, as indicated by the sine function graph, then a retest of the lows is in play.
2. For the most part, the current represents a 'no buy' area. Medium and long term traders will wait from a confirmation in price and velocity before making a trade. BTC NVT signal has also been flashing red and those corrections have averaged at 33% to the downside. That analysis supports a lower price target of $4100.
3. By September 1, 2019 the market should have a clear confirmation of the new bull market. Keeping time in perspective, Bull markets are not going straight to the moon. Two years is a long time.
4. There are plenty of unknowns and assumptions regarding the future of crypto. However, there is still a tremendous of development in the works and many solution have not been brought to market. The pipeline is full of good projects and development. This idea supports the future price appreciation of BTC.
Thanks for reading and I am looking forward to reading your comments.
1. Vertical blue lines represent a 2 month market cycle.
2. Green shaded areas represent the bull market.
3. Red shaded areas represent the bear market.
4. Yellow shaded represent the consolidation phase of the market.
5. Purple vertical broken lines are the bitcoin halvening dates.
6. The sine function was used to provide a normal distribution visual.
What can we see here? Point of reference: 2 month cycles are referred to daily cycles.
1. Bull market cycles last for 13 daily cycles. 2.2 years
2. Bear market cycles last for 7 daily cycles. 1.1 years
3. Consolidation phases last for 4 daily cycles. .66 years
4. Total = 4 years plus or minus a couple of months
Where are we headed?
1. We are in the middle of the consolidation phase. The sine function is intended to illustrate the possible fractal of the 2015 consolidation phase. While the price action pattern does not play out exactly, we can see that from a time series perspective it representing the same behavior. In addition, if this consolidation is normally distributed, as indicated by the sine function graph, then a retest of the lows is in play.
2. For the most part, the current represents a 'no buy' area. Medium and long term traders will wait from a confirmation in price and velocity before making a trade. BTC NVT signal has also been flashing red and those corrections have averaged at 33% to the downside. That analysis supports a lower price target of $4100.
3. By September 1, 2019 the market should have a clear confirmation of the new bull market. Keeping time in perspective, Bull markets are not going straight to the moon. Two years is a long time.
4. There are plenty of unknowns and assumptions regarding the future of crypto. However, there is still a tremendous of development in the works and many solution have not been brought to market. The pipeline is full of good projects and development. This idea supports the future price appreciation of BTC.
Thanks for reading and I am looking forward to reading your comments.
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