Here i present an updated version of what was a very popular chart shared back in May of 2017, highlighting the market cycles bitcoin goes through, and how I thought we would see a c.20k top on the current run before a significant reversion. Please check this out in the attached.
I use that chart as my framework for BTC and this represents an update to that mainly due to request but also because I want to put out there advancement on the original idea, which ultimately proved to be so profitable.
Once again I illustrate the trading range progression, which BTC has maintained to date, and I believe will retain. This is mainly due to psychology of the market and the ultimate exhaustion and accumulation, which must occur. Im now calling out the different parabolic phases we have gone through. Its important to note that these phases, although shown on a logarithmic chart, will not continue in a linear fashion (while BTC is the asset which it is forging). The reason for this is that its easy to double a market cap when in its infancy but it gets increasingly difficult (or time consuming) to double price as market gains significant value.
I have introduced two elements to this chart which I believe to be very important..
i) The super guppy indicator illustrates shows us that historical breakdowns have signaled a breakdown into a new accumulation range, with the 200 EMA serving as an average floor price. I believe this to be hugely important in this current correction and should serve as a floor but may be front run to some extent. The 200 EMA is currently around $3800
ii) The BTC Halvening or whereby the Bitcoin protocol forces minting of new coins to halve is probably only secondary to fixed supply in being an economic influencer in the price of Bitcoin. As illustrated by the arrows, on face value, its clear that this has been a major influencer in igniting the new bull runs.
With these two factors in mind and having a minor reevaluation of the original chart’s outlying trajectory, I forecast the following scenarios A and B that are ultimately influenced by what this market has learned
In both instances the basic illustration shows another parabolic advance, either in one or two phases as we have seen historically. The lines would represent the bottom of the parabola rather than the top, i.e. these would be the bottom prices in the bull market runs.
Correction/Accumulation:
I expect the accumulation phase to occur largely in the 3.8k -5.8k range, below where the market cheerleaders currently are calling. The main reason for this is purely based upon historic market performance which is critical to this model, and because everyone thinks the bottom is in – meaning we probably have some way to go because its easy to sense its out of bias rather than logic.
Earliest I expect this period to end would be the end of 2018 and the latest could be towards the end of the second quarter 2019.
CONTINUED IN COMMENTS DUE TO CHARACTER CONSTRAINTS