BTC Elliott Wave Long Term View
Updated
As far as I know, the Brave New Coin Liquid Index (BLX) has the most complete chart of BTC. Looking at the 1M chart, we can observe that BTC halving events appear to always kick off wave 3 impulses. In the first halving, we can see a blow off top in the minor 5 of intermediate (3). The second halving, takes in minor 1 of intermediate (3) and the third halving also takes place during minor 1 of an intermediate (3). Most counts, regardless of the Elliott Wave pattern interpreted by the Elliotician puts us in a wave (4) either in an expanding flat or a WXY. Both the triangle in (4) and running flat with a leading diagonal in (1) of ((5)) ideas have been invalidated. There are arguments for cycle I being complete but looking at the duration in time of each wave it feels unlikely that this would be the case. Right now, the WXY in intermediate (4) of primary ((5)) is my main count with either the expanding flat or the cycle 1 complete counts being my alternates. As such, I think we have a strong chance of dropping down to around the $17,000-$18,000 before the bull run towards $100,000 begins (123.6-161.8 of the inverse of intermediate (3) and (4)).
Note
Updated wave count based on feedback from other Elliott Wave analysts here on Trading View. Note
Wave ((3)) ended at 69,000 and we're correcting in primary ((4)). Wave ((4)) price cannot enter into the territory of wave ((1)) at 33.00...
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