Bitcoin - Sell in March and Go Away?
Let me begin with a caveat: a sample size of five is hardly enough to be statistically accurate. Regardless, this cycle analysis aligns with my Gann analysis and the Primary EW count.
My thesis is that Bitcoin will make a long-term top by March or April 2025, followed by a severe downtrend.
Supporting Evidence:
Cycle crests. Since 2021, Bitcoin has made significant tops in March, followed by a 12W or more downtrend.
Primary EW Count:
According to the primary EW count, beginning in November 2021, Bitcoin is in the final stage of completing primary wave 5. This estimate relates to the price axis. It is common practice to estimate the time of a fifth wave as the 1.272 extension of the fourth wave. According to this measure, the fifth wave could be completed as early as February 2025.
Gann Analysis:
Throughout the current uptrend, Bitcoin’s price traded almost exclusively within the bounds of the 2/1 Gann angle support and the 1/1 Gan angle resistance.
Even if completing the primary fifth wave leads to a substantial correction of more than 40%, as long as Bitcoin holds the 2/1 support, it is enough to support continuation in an overshooting wave B to the final blow-off top in October/November 2025, in line with the 4Y cycle.
Best wishes
My thesis is that Bitcoin will make a long-term top by March or April 2025, followed by a severe downtrend.
Supporting Evidence:
Cycle crests. Since 2021, Bitcoin has made significant tops in March, followed by a 12W or more downtrend.
Primary EW Count:
According to the primary EW count, beginning in November 2021, Bitcoin is in the final stage of completing primary wave 5. This estimate relates to the price axis. It is common practice to estimate the time of a fifth wave as the 1.272 extension of the fourth wave. According to this measure, the fifth wave could be completed as early as February 2025.
Gann Analysis:
Throughout the current uptrend, Bitcoin’s price traded almost exclusively within the bounds of the 2/1 Gann angle support and the 1/1 Gan angle resistance.
Even if completing the primary fifth wave leads to a substantial correction of more than 40%, as long as Bitcoin holds the 2/1 support, it is enough to support continuation in an overshooting wave B to the final blow-off top in October/November 2025, in line with the 4Y cycle.
Best wishes
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.