When everyone was bull, I was never convinced long term. I'm still an amateur with no real investments but I've yet to be convinced we're bull.
If we get rejected in the small red channel I've drawn and fail to find support along the green, I do believe we can free fall to a likely target $3,400. If it is breeched, I do believe $1900-$2200 is the absolute bottom. My suspicion about the 2019 "bull run" being the B wave of a corrective structure ended up being correct. Anyway, for the C wave to finish, I do believe we need to go down more.
Yes, I know the halvening is a powerful catalyst for igniting a bull run but the market hasn't shown any signs of reacting to it as yet. Until I start to see volume pick up with more impulsive wave forms, I won't be too convinced.