Here I am with a quick update to my previous analysis:
With this analysis, I'm comparing the Bitcoin STANDARD LOG GROWTH CHART (above) with the Bitcoin / M1 SUPPLY and the Bitcoin / M2 supply charts (below)
Thesis:
- The BTC price didn't increase as we think.
- The BTC price will increase x5 from now.
Introduction:
During the pandemic period, M1 and M2 grew exponentially. It's important to highlight this macroeconomic pump and adjusts the crypto market price accordingly.
Data:
- if we consider the M1 supply, we are still below the all-time high of the 2017 BTC cycle (see the M1 chart)
- if we consider the M2 supply, we re-tested and bounced back from the all-time high of the 2017 BTC cycle (see the M2 chart)
Therefore, the BTC price did not increase as we think.
Forecast:
First of all, we are experiencing great support and a confluence of indicators and lines. We are in a super good position right now.
- Scenario 1 (orange): we gradually go up and we reach approx. 88k$ at the end of Sept 2021. Then we go back to the re-test the 50-60k ranges until the end of the year. BTC reaches the top in the middle of 2022: 180k$-200k$. These prices are perfectly in line with a lot of resistances and the timeline matches the log growth.
- Scenario 2 (violet): we go up and down and we don't surpass the 48-50k$ prices until the end of Nov 2021. From the Dec 2021, we skyrocket. BTC reaches the top in the middle of 2022: 180k$-200k$. These prices are perfectly in line with a lot of resistances and the timeline matches the log growth.
Therefore, the BTC price did not increase as we think.
What do you guys think?