November 3rd 2018 Bitcoin Update

Updated

If Bitcoin closes below the previous week's low on the BLX, then we may see the 5.8k - 6k level again. Currently there is no clear direction at this time without any catalyst until we get the November ETF decision.

Daily chart is looking fine however, but is showing weakness below the 6439.30 point of control. I would like to see us break above this level on the bullish note.

Bullish Targets: 6439.30
Bearish Targets: 6191.65 (Low of previous USDT pump candle)

Happy sideways

Note

TD + RSI Analysis:
It's an exciting time to be alive right now. Why? If you look at this 4hr chart, we have finally broken above the 60 RSI resistance and are onwards towards the 70 RSI level. We have not broken above 60 since the last time we were at the 6.8k level. If we are to break above the 70 RSI as well on this 4hr chart, a MASSIVE bull rally WILL occur.
There was also a TD9 signalling a buy earlier today at 6328 and was confirmed with the bullish breakout above 6.4k (which I should have posted, but I got caught up playing Destiny 2).

Trendline Analysis:

Also, it appears that we have broken out of the downtrend and were able to close above it on the daily with some significant volume across major exchanges!

Block Analysis:

We were above to wick back into the resistance orderblock level above 6457 and hold support at the 6388 support orderblock. This could indicate more sideways action until we are able to cleanly break above 6.5.

MACD Analysis:

The daily MACD has also began to cross upwards on that daily close indicating that we will begin to move upwards on the upcoming days, however the histogram indicates that we may trade sideways if there is no follow-up volume this week.

DMI Analysis:

The 4hr DMI remains bullish with the green above the red while the ADX (purple line) is trading at the 30.9 (a value of 25+ indicates a strong trend) so the DMI aligns with the upside momentum.

The DMI on the daily is also beginning to rend upwards, currently sitting at 12.3 ADX level with green above the red (bullish). I would like to see this break above the 15 level resistance.

This conclude's today's analysis. Although things are looking great for the bulls here, we still need to break above the 6.5k layer of resistance and continue to break above the 70RSI while making a break above the 15 ADX resistance on the daily. And as always, happy sideways :) (between 6359 and 6499).

Note

Note: Even though we closed above the downtrend, this is still a possible bull trap. We must close above yesterday's high of 6471 or else we may dump back down to 6.2 level.

Note

Some bearish divergence forming on the 4hr, however RSI is a big choppy, so I wouldn't pay much mind to it. Bearish divergences are expected to form in bull markets. It does not mean that the trend is over. It simply means that we are overextended and need a pullback. The inverse could be said to be true for bear markets (when we need a bounce). I am still waiting to break above 6.5 with over 70 RSI while meeting the rest of my conditions. At the moment, it seems we will continue to range in my red and green rectangles (someone pointed out to me that it wasn't a square).

Note

Possible dump here to 6408. Looks like a liquidity run to fill shorts before dumping the market. 6.2 is also possible if this was a bull trap.

Note

Will be watching 40 RSI on the H4 timeframe for a bounce play on longs. We are still having trouble breaking above the 70 RSI on the H4, but on the side note, a pullback was needed anyways on this rally. I remain neutral on my sentiment until more price development has formed at my 6408 target.

Note

TD9 on Bitcoin, but candles 8 or 9 dont close below 6 and 7, so it's not the ideal signal. However I do not think this is a bad entry for longs. This is a possible bottom.

Note

-Hovering slightly below the bullish 50 RSI range on the 4hr
-TD9 candle (not ideal buy signal though since 8/9 didnt close below 6 and 7)
-Bounced perfectly right off my bullish block at 6.4
-Doji candle on previous 4hr, possible indicator of a bounce

I would still like to see DMI green cross back up above red and MACD cross upwards, however these are delayed indicators. An entry here at 6.4 is not a bad early entry for longs. This may be the possible bottom.

Note

Strong bearish close beneath bullish support level. This turned bearish overnight. However, we are in the possible bounce area with the 40 RSI reset on the H4, so bulls need to push this one hard back above 6.4 before daily close. This is also the third dive, which is usually proceeded by some upwards movement. Sentiment is bearish unless bulls are able to push the market back above 6.4 before the daily close.

Note

Correction on the previous update, we need to close daily above 6389 not 6.4, since that is the midrange of the previous uptrend.

Note

Bitmex funding is extremely high right now at 0.1058% for the next 4 hours. Watch for liquidations.

Note

Bitcoin inching closer to that 6.3 support. This drop is surprisingly slow for a "dump," without much follow through. I think we will see a full retrace back up to 6.5 and possibly make higher highs once we get our first green 4hr close (if we do not break below 6.3 support). I am still watching for that daily close above 6389 to confirm higher upside.

Note

BTC Looking good on the reversal with the three dives down and 40 RSI support holding. I think we will hit new highs above 6568 from here. A lot of confluence pointing a reversal here towards the upside.

Note

If we get a 6.3 close on 4hr, we should get a nice bull divg, I want to see another stop run below 6.3 and form a double bottom on the 4hr then another rocket up to 6.4.

TTM signal is indicating a major move soon (unclear which direction), what I would like to see is a the MACD bounce off each other and diverge into a bullish breakout during the next stop run below 6.3, faking out the bears that think we will get a dump.

Note

Got that 6.3 stop run as predicted. Also the 6260 previous low stops were ran as well. I expect rocket up towards 6.4 now to run that 6406 stops.

H4 MACD is getting fairly close to each other, expecting this to bounce off each other, or get a fake downcross and then cross back up trapping bottom shorters.

Note

TD9 Buy Signal
Entry: 6274
Exit: 6416

Note

New btc targets: 7.8k

This is a double bottom on the daily
I think we will blow through 6.5 from here

Note

This looks very ugly, however I think this is the ultimate bear trap before a bull run. Every bull run is preceded by a dump breaking previous lows to run the stops and trap bears who've shorted the bottom. If I am correct, we should see a massive bull rally after this dump.

Note

1H, 3H, 4H, are all above or on TD9 count. Once the 2H chart hits the TD9 count, we may finally get our big bounce on XBTUSD and test 5.8k - 6k for the make or break. However this still calls for another 5 hours of downside or sideways. After daily closing should be where we hit the TD9 count, so expect the bounce to happen around that time.

Note: Yes I am still bullish and I believe this is a sweep of the yearly lows before our big bull rally. However if we fail the 6k test, then my visions will change to bearish.

Note

Also wanted to note to be careful with leverage. Bitmex liquidations are manipulating the price of BTC by moving the asks down the books to get filled (because if liquidations don't get filled at the liquidation price, then Bitmex loses money, so they will try to minimize their losses)

Cryptogrithm

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