BTC USD Bearish Scenario #1 Bears win 2 battles Bulls win War
Updated
Dear HodlCrypots,
As we all know BTC is making a complex correction from it's previous all time high. To anticipate the upcoming moves we have to assume that there is a basic underlying structure in all corrective structures. This is a scenario where I anticipate bitcoin to make an even bigger WXYXZ corrective structure. Keep in mind that this is speculation from my side and it doesn't have to play out this way. It's an idea, in my opinion a very realistic one but nonetheless it's not to be interpreted as a roadmap of how bitcoin SHOULD or MUST move. It is besides crypto that we are talking about and BIG unexpected moves are almost guarenteed in this market, like the recent TETHER situation that catapulted the price.
The core underlying aspect of this scenario is that we still have to make 1 more lower low and that the bear market is going to take longer than most bulls hope for (including me). The second assumption is that the 5000 USD area is too big of a psychological price and has algo targets supporting it as you can see clearly in the chart. We also see a clear decline in volume and a constant repeat of either a 0.5 or 0.618 retracement playing out. We have an incomplete Elliot wave count. We see a clear rejection of the 125 EMA. The tether situation also has created some uncertainty and it doesn't matter if the rumors are correct or wrong from a technical point of view. It almost allways affects the market and the big question is: will you disregard it or take it into account. The way I interpret it is it created at least some uncertainty, and while it created a spike in volume in the short term it will create a further decline in volume in the mid-term or long-term.
Now the assumption is: If we are to make one more lower low and if it will only reach the price of 5000 USD it is in my opinion to high to call it a big break down (it is only 700 dollars lower of the previous low to show the insignificance of this correction). What will happen next in this scenario? If the price surge after that, and only if the 5000 USD price level holds (!) and we won't make it past 6800 USD after that then the 'capitulation' moment will be triggered. In my opinion this will be marked as a 3-3-5 Z correction move where the 5 move will be a big dropdown of 2800 USD into the 4000 USD area. I have also seen too many posts of people stating that bitcoin won't go below 5000 USD. These are the people that will be capitulating when it does. In my opinion I see no reason for btc to go lower than 3700 USD in this end move (and this possibility of a 3700 USD move will only be a wick). Prices will calm down after that and adaptive traders will see a completed correction when it unfolds. When they step in it will be officialy bull time after a possible reversal trend sign that also can take 2-3 months to perform, but a lower low will not happen from this point on in this scenario. The bulls will have finaly wun the war. Only after this gets confirmed the parabolic run will start and big money will flow in because bear market will finaly be over.
Again: this is one bearish scenario that might play out, there are many others, I personaly don't stick to one scenario and posses one more bearish scenario and 2 other bullish scenario's so interpret this like me as an idea to see if BTC will be valued this way in the upcoming months.
Another bearish scenario is also possible in which the 5000 USD level won't hold, and the more the price will break down the more I am inclined to accept only a 3 lower low counting.
The rest is all in the chart and you can find the support levels and the high resistance zone in the chart.
Thanks for taking your time to read this!
Stay safe and good luck everyone!
PS: This is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor. The sharing of graphs is meant to share my ideas with the rest of the community and an indication on how I make my trades
As we all know BTC is making a complex correction from it's previous all time high. To anticipate the upcoming moves we have to assume that there is a basic underlying structure in all corrective structures. This is a scenario where I anticipate bitcoin to make an even bigger WXYXZ corrective structure. Keep in mind that this is speculation from my side and it doesn't have to play out this way. It's an idea, in my opinion a very realistic one but nonetheless it's not to be interpreted as a roadmap of how bitcoin SHOULD or MUST move. It is besides crypto that we are talking about and BIG unexpected moves are almost guarenteed in this market, like the recent TETHER situation that catapulted the price.
The core underlying aspect of this scenario is that we still have to make 1 more lower low and that the bear market is going to take longer than most bulls hope for (including me). The second assumption is that the 5000 USD area is too big of a psychological price and has algo targets supporting it as you can see clearly in the chart. We also see a clear decline in volume and a constant repeat of either a 0.5 or 0.618 retracement playing out. We have an incomplete Elliot wave count. We see a clear rejection of the 125 EMA. The tether situation also has created some uncertainty and it doesn't matter if the rumors are correct or wrong from a technical point of view. It almost allways affects the market and the big question is: will you disregard it or take it into account. The way I interpret it is it created at least some uncertainty, and while it created a spike in volume in the short term it will create a further decline in volume in the mid-term or long-term.
Now the assumption is: If we are to make one more lower low and if it will only reach the price of 5000 USD it is in my opinion to high to call it a big break down (it is only 700 dollars lower of the previous low to show the insignificance of this correction). What will happen next in this scenario? If the price surge after that, and only if the 5000 USD price level holds (!) and we won't make it past 6800 USD after that then the 'capitulation' moment will be triggered. In my opinion this will be marked as a 3-3-5 Z correction move where the 5 move will be a big dropdown of 2800 USD into the 4000 USD area. I have also seen too many posts of people stating that bitcoin won't go below 5000 USD. These are the people that will be capitulating when it does. In my opinion I see no reason for btc to go lower than 3700 USD in this end move (and this possibility of a 3700 USD move will only be a wick). Prices will calm down after that and adaptive traders will see a completed correction when it unfolds. When they step in it will be officialy bull time after a possible reversal trend sign that also can take 2-3 months to perform, but a lower low will not happen from this point on in this scenario. The bulls will have finaly wun the war. Only after this gets confirmed the parabolic run will start and big money will flow in because bear market will finaly be over.
Again: this is one bearish scenario that might play out, there are many others, I personaly don't stick to one scenario and posses one more bearish scenario and 2 other bullish scenario's so interpret this like me as an idea to see if BTC will be valued this way in the upcoming months.
Another bearish scenario is also possible in which the 5000 USD level won't hold, and the more the price will break down the more I am inclined to accept only a 3 lower low counting.
The rest is all in the chart and you can find the support levels and the high resistance zone in the chart.
Thanks for taking your time to read this!
Stay safe and good luck everyone!
PS: This is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor. The sharing of graphs is meant to share my ideas with the rest of the community and an indication on how I make my trades
Note
In support of all mentioned above, all bearish signals from the RSI
Note
Trade safe and keep this count in mindNote
Keep watching these levels
Order cancelled
Better to wait for confirmation! watch the marketcap closely
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