Bitcoin: Correlation between NVT and the All-Time Mean
Today I want to look at the bigger picture to put in context the recent Bitcoin move.
In the weekly chart, we see that the bias is bearish. The lows at 3100 fail to qualify as a THE BOTTOM by any sort of crypto standard:
a) Lack of volume
b) Lack of strong bounce
c) Lack of institutional blueprint
d) NVT still optimistic
Now, I want to look it from the perspective of the All-Time historical Mean for Bitcoin.
The bottom would be more credible if it coincides with a test of this line, as happened in 2015.
I'm plotting Bitstamp and BNC series, and we can see there a huge void between the current price location and the place where the All-Time Mean sits.
At Bitstamp, Bitcoin consolidated above the All-Time mean during 8 months before confirming the bull trend.
At the BraveNewCoin series (which is the longest one available in Tradingview), we see that the $150 spike bounced from the All-Time Mean.
Therefore, this is a legit line to be taken into consideration to prove the bottoming. Most of the assets have a natural tendency to revisit this line along high time frame cycles (unless they are heavily manipulated).
Additionally, the NVT is sitting at a similar range level (80-100) than did at 2015 before crashing below 50 and signal the low.
Will bitcoin test the All-Time Mean during this cycle? Well, we don't know that for sure but certainly the chances are there.
Bitcoin has been unable to fulfill any solid bottoming criteria and this one looks like could be the missing one that could trigger heavy volume and flash crash action.
In the weekly chart, we see that the bias is bearish. The lows at 3100 fail to qualify as a THE BOTTOM by any sort of crypto standard:
a) Lack of volume
b) Lack of strong bounce
c) Lack of institutional blueprint
d) NVT still optimistic
Now, I want to look it from the perspective of the All-Time historical Mean for Bitcoin.
The bottom would be more credible if it coincides with a test of this line, as happened in 2015.
I'm plotting Bitstamp and BNC series, and we can see there a huge void between the current price location and the place where the All-Time Mean sits.
At Bitstamp, Bitcoin consolidated above the All-Time mean during 8 months before confirming the bull trend.
At the BraveNewCoin series (which is the longest one available in Tradingview), we see that the $150 spike bounced from the All-Time Mean.
Therefore, this is a legit line to be taken into consideration to prove the bottoming. Most of the assets have a natural tendency to revisit this line along high time frame cycles (unless they are heavily manipulated).
Additionally, the NVT is sitting at a similar range level (80-100) than did at 2015 before crashing below 50 and signal the low.
Will bitcoin test the All-Time Mean during this cycle? Well, we don't know that for sure but certainly the chances are there.
Bitcoin has been unable to fulfill any solid bottoming criteria and this one looks like could be the missing one that could trigger heavy volume and flash crash action.
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