Bitcoin log chart - long term indicators to look at
As a follow on from the previous analysis 
about the halving and past indicators, we can see BTC is in new territory and this halving is nothing like any other halving before. We wrote about this when BTC was about to pierce back below the Gaussian Channel(GC).
BTC has never gone below the GC once it turned green after being red but this time it has clearly done this and even traded under the GC. So far the GC has stayed green which is a positive sign for BTC after the crash in early March. What we do know now is that this halving has a different look to it than the others and that the yellow box which indicates a bear market/cycle occurred twice before this halving.
There is room to grow up to the top of the GC @ $9800 but what we are looking for is for BTC to rise back above the Gaussian Channel(GC) so it can act in a similar way to the previous halving bull runs. The EMA 10 (in blue) is nearly back above the MA 21 (in orange) on this weekly log chart, which is a bullish indicator as explained about in previous analysis. Only a false breakout would invalidate this scenario. If the EMA 10 doesn't cross the MA 21 then that would give an indication this current action was just a pre-halving pump and dump.
We look at the monthly log chart below and can see that BTC is holding the MA 50 (in orange) and is trying to close above the EMA 10 (in blue). If you look back before last halving you can see that once the BTC monthly candle went above EMA 10 it held this till the next bear cycle. You can also see previously that the candles were squeezed between EMA 10 and MA 50 right before the next bull run (end of each yellow rectangular box) and this squeezing lasted for roughly 4+ months before BTC broke above the EMA 10 and onto the next bull run. When you look at where we are currently I am unsure to say whether the candles have made a similar pattern by getting squeezed in between the 2 indicators mentioned as the false breakout shown by the green flag could be part of the squeeze or it could not be. If it is, then this current candle should close above the monthly EMA 10 and then not close below it until the end of the bull run. What I am concerned about on this monthly chart is the room still available to drop to the MA 50 from where this current pump is going. If the squeeze is to go on for a few more months this scenario could easily play out.
So, is this the start of the next bull run? The EMA 10 will tell us this.
Is it just a pump n dump and we will see 2 more months of the 'squeeze' on the monthly chart I mentioned? If so, we could see 6k prices within weeks.
Will BTC move above the GC and if so, when will it retrace back to the MA 21 to retest this important weekly chart indicator?
Seeing as we know this halving is unlike the others, anything could happen. As always react to the charts and indicators and make your moves from there. We will monitor this monthly candle and the EMA 10 on both weekly and monthly charts to shed some light on where BTC is heading over the next few weeks and then into a more long term view.
Happy trading legends!
HTBB
BTC has never gone below the GC once it turned green after being red but this time it has clearly done this and even traded under the GC. So far the GC has stayed green which is a positive sign for BTC after the crash in early March. What we do know now is that this halving has a different look to it than the others and that the yellow box which indicates a bear market/cycle occurred twice before this halving.
There is room to grow up to the top of the GC @ $9800 but what we are looking for is for BTC to rise back above the Gaussian Channel(GC) so it can act in a similar way to the previous halving bull runs. The EMA 10 (in blue) is nearly back above the MA 21 (in orange) on this weekly log chart, which is a bullish indicator as explained about in previous analysis. Only a false breakout would invalidate this scenario. If the EMA 10 doesn't cross the MA 21 then that would give an indication this current action was just a pre-halving pump and dump.
We look at the monthly log chart below and can see that BTC is holding the MA 50 (in orange) and is trying to close above the EMA 10 (in blue). If you look back before last halving you can see that once the BTC monthly candle went above EMA 10 it held this till the next bear cycle. You can also see previously that the candles were squeezed between EMA 10 and MA 50 right before the next bull run (end of each yellow rectangular box) and this squeezing lasted for roughly 4+ months before BTC broke above the EMA 10 and onto the next bull run. When you look at where we are currently I am unsure to say whether the candles have made a similar pattern by getting squeezed in between the 2 indicators mentioned as the false breakout shown by the green flag could be part of the squeeze or it could not be. If it is, then this current candle should close above the monthly EMA 10 and then not close below it until the end of the bull run. What I am concerned about on this monthly chart is the room still available to drop to the MA 50 from where this current pump is going. If the squeeze is to go on for a few more months this scenario could easily play out.
So, is this the start of the next bull run? The EMA 10 will tell us this.
Is it just a pump n dump and we will see 2 more months of the 'squeeze' on the monthly chart I mentioned? If so, we could see 6k prices within weeks.
Will BTC move above the GC and if so, when will it retrace back to the MA 21 to retest this important weekly chart indicator?
Seeing as we know this halving is unlike the others, anything could happen. As always react to the charts and indicators and make your moves from there. We will monitor this monthly candle and the EMA 10 on both weekly and monthly charts to shed some light on where BTC is heading over the next few weeks and then into a more long term view.
Happy trading legends!
HTBB
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