$125K for Bitcoin by Sep 2021 can still be expected
There are a few clues you can take from the "Bitcoin log growth curves" indicator by Quantadelic from past cycles that could prove useful in determining when to sell your Bitcoin at the end of this cycle.
The first time the 8th log growth curve was hit of the 10 total was 6/4/11, 4 days before the $31.60 6/8/11 top. Bitcoin hit the 8th growth curve or above from 6/4/11 to 6/16/11, a total of 13 days. If you had sold 1/13 of your BTC on each of these days, your sell DCA would have been $22.11 which was 69.3% of the $31.90 high.
In 2013 the first time the 8th log growth curve was hit was 11/18/13, 12 days before the $1177 11/30/13 top. Bitcoin hit the 8th growth curve or above from 11/18/13 to 12/17/13, a total of 30 days. If you had sold 1/30 of your BTC on each of these days, your sell DCA would have been $906 which was 77.0% of the $1177 high.
In 2017 the first time the 8th log growth curve was hit was 12/7/17, 10 days before the $19892 top. Bitcoin hit the 8th growth curve or above from 12/7/17 to 1/15/18, a total of 40 days. If you had sold 1/40 of your BTC on each of these days, your sell DCA would have been $16072 which was 80.8% of the $19892 high.
For this cycle if BTC tops out again at the 10th curve, then it will first hit the 8th log growth curve from 4 to 12 days before the top most likely.
If you start to sell your BTC once it hits the 8th growth curve and sell in tranches over the next month or so, then it is likely your sell DCA will be 70-80% of the eventual top based on past cycle history which is about the best you can hope for. Nobody sells all of their BTC at the exact top in any cycle.
One day it hit the 10th curve, the day of the top on 6/8/11. 3 days it hit the 10th curve in 2013, the day before the top, the day of the top on 11/30/13, and the day after the top. 5 days it hit the 10th curve in 2017, 12/7/17, the day before the top, the top on 12/17/17, and the two days after. It is likely in this cycle that the 10th curve will be hit for several days and if past is prologue, then it could be up to seven days.
There could be a supercycle where BTC goes much higher than the expected 125K on 9/23/21 plus or minus two days according the golden ratio time theory produced by tradingshot on Trading View. In this case legendary investor Bob Loukas recommends holding 10-20% just in case this scenario unfolds. Even if it doesn't happen, then you have protected yourself from what he calls "upside risk". Plus you probably bought that BTC much lower than what the bear market will produce in 2022 which is likely the 30K to 40K range so in the long run it still won't matter much. You could hold it until 2025 and likely get in the order of 600K to 700K by then according to the top of the curves by July 2025.
The first time the 8th log growth curve was hit of the 10 total was 6/4/11, 4 days before the $31.60 6/8/11 top. Bitcoin hit the 8th growth curve or above from 6/4/11 to 6/16/11, a total of 13 days. If you had sold 1/13 of your BTC on each of these days, your sell DCA would have been $22.11 which was 69.3% of the $31.90 high.
In 2013 the first time the 8th log growth curve was hit was 11/18/13, 12 days before the $1177 11/30/13 top. Bitcoin hit the 8th growth curve or above from 11/18/13 to 12/17/13, a total of 30 days. If you had sold 1/30 of your BTC on each of these days, your sell DCA would have been $906 which was 77.0% of the $1177 high.
In 2017 the first time the 8th log growth curve was hit was 12/7/17, 10 days before the $19892 top. Bitcoin hit the 8th growth curve or above from 12/7/17 to 1/15/18, a total of 40 days. If you had sold 1/40 of your BTC on each of these days, your sell DCA would have been $16072 which was 80.8% of the $19892 high.
For this cycle if BTC tops out again at the 10th curve, then it will first hit the 8th log growth curve from 4 to 12 days before the top most likely.
If you start to sell your BTC once it hits the 8th growth curve and sell in tranches over the next month or so, then it is likely your sell DCA will be 70-80% of the eventual top based on past cycle history which is about the best you can hope for. Nobody sells all of their BTC at the exact top in any cycle.
One day it hit the 10th curve, the day of the top on 6/8/11. 3 days it hit the 10th curve in 2013, the day before the top, the day of the top on 11/30/13, and the day after the top. 5 days it hit the 10th curve in 2017, 12/7/17, the day before the top, the top on 12/17/17, and the two days after. It is likely in this cycle that the 10th curve will be hit for several days and if past is prologue, then it could be up to seven days.
There could be a supercycle where BTC goes much higher than the expected 125K on 9/23/21 plus or minus two days according the golden ratio time theory produced by tradingshot on Trading View. In this case legendary investor Bob Loukas recommends holding 10-20% just in case this scenario unfolds. Even if it doesn't happen, then you have protected yourself from what he calls "upside risk". Plus you probably bought that BTC much lower than what the bear market will produce in 2022 which is likely the 30K to 40K range so in the long run it still won't matter much. You could hold it until 2025 and likely get in the order of 600K to 700K by then according to the top of the curves by July 2025.
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