Using Gann Fans To Time The Parabolic Move To The Top
Updated
Using Gann fans, admittedly in a way that they are not supposed to be used, it seems to give a reliable indication of when Bitcoin will begin the parabolic move to the top.
If you draw a Gann fan from the top to bottom of each cycle, you can see that whenever Bitcoin leaves the 8/1 line of the fan, it appears to start a parabolic move to new ATHs with very little downside. These 8/1 lines were a downward sloping 18 degree angle in both 2016 and 2020, and in 2023 it is a 13 degree angle.
The yellow line marks the halving. In 2016 Bitcoin found itself right at the 8/1 line on the halving. After a bit of a pullback, it began a parabolic move to the top.
2020 is a little less clear due to the black swan of covid, but it went above the 8/1, then came back down for a retest, then went on a parabolic move to ATH.
At this point in 2023, we are right in the middle of the 8/1 line (at 47k) and the 4/1 (at 32k). I think a push to 47k is probably more likely, but either way, I expect it to be near the 8/1 line at the halving, which would be around 44k.
Once it moves away from this line, I think a parabolic move with little to no downside will have began on the way to a new ATH.
This Gann fan, which you can get by drawing from the top of 2014 to the top of 2018, created several significant trendlines, which we have just come above, but remains to be seen if they will hold.
Similarly, you can get this Gann fan by drawing one between the 2018 and 2020 top, which also resulted in several significant trend lines.
The top of that channel is at about 51k, and the bottom is 37k. On a potential pullback, this would be a first area that I would look at of significant possible support.
If you draw a Gann fan from the top to bottom of each cycle, you can see that whenever Bitcoin leaves the 8/1 line of the fan, it appears to start a parabolic move to new ATHs with very little downside. These 8/1 lines were a downward sloping 18 degree angle in both 2016 and 2020, and in 2023 it is a 13 degree angle.
The yellow line marks the halving. In 2016 Bitcoin found itself right at the 8/1 line on the halving. After a bit of a pullback, it began a parabolic move to the top.
2020 is a little less clear due to the black swan of covid, but it went above the 8/1, then came back down for a retest, then went on a parabolic move to ATH.
At this point in 2023, we are right in the middle of the 8/1 line (at 47k) and the 4/1 (at 32k). I think a push to 47k is probably more likely, but either way, I expect it to be near the 8/1 line at the halving, which would be around 44k.
Once it moves away from this line, I think a parabolic move with little to no downside will have began on the way to a new ATH.
This Gann fan, which you can get by drawing from the top of 2014 to the top of 2018, created several significant trendlines, which we have just come above, but remains to be seen if they will hold.
Similarly, you can get this Gann fan by drawing one between the 2018 and 2020 top, which also resulted in several significant trend lines.
The top of that channel is at about 51k, and the bottom is 37k. On a potential pullback, this would be a first area that I would look at of significant possible support.
Note
Looks like a retest of this trendline at about 39k or so is in the works.
Note
Rejected off the blue fan and came within about 200$ of the yellow at about 40400. Possible it could go down to that today. I think the chances of a bounce here are pretty good, but it's also quite possible that we go down to the lower green fan at 37k, which would also dip the RSI into the red. I think a bounce here at the yellow fan is probable, which could see a return to the upper blue at 46k.
Note
No bounce or recovery at the yellow fan thus far. If it doesn't recover, a dip down to the green fan at about 38k is likely. In order for my original thesis to be right, the yellow scenario should be the route bitcoin takes. If it goes below the green fan at 38k to the lower arm at 32k, I would consider it invalidated unless something miraculous happens. If bitty remains above the green fan at 38k, there is still a possibility it might bounce to the top at 46k, though unlikely.
Note
We got a recovery of the yellow fan and of the emas. The 20 day and the 50 day emas came within about $200 of crossing. I would expect a fairly quick resolution from here. I don't see the price hanging around this area very long. I think a return to the blue fan at 46k most likely since we are above the emas. If we lose the emas and go back down to the yellow fan, I'd consider it a fakeout and would be placing my bets on the red scenario playing out. Yellow is least likely imo.
Note
Back to 46k. Remains to be seen if it can hold the red fan (I changed the color from blue as seen in previous screenshots). It is sitting on top of it now. If it holds, there is a possibility we could go to around 52k at the upper green fan. If it doesn't hold and we go below the yellow fan, we will most likely return to the green fan at around 38k.
On the hourly.
Note
A nearly perfect rejection from the upper green fan at 52-53k. From here, I think it will go down, but possibly make one more attempt at the 52-53k perhaps after finding support at EMA. The longer this stays above the magenta line, the more I think that this is the beginning of the parabolic move, halving or not. That is what this theory is all about, after all, so if it does not go back below it, or at least somewhere around it, there isn't much left to think based on this other than the parabolic move with little downside on the way to ATH has already begun.
The ETF is a bit of a black swan, not that the event itself couldn't have been predicted of course, but that the effects from it are unpredictable. Either way, I'm sticking to my guns on this one.
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