Bitcoin: Bullish but No Rush
Updated
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For BTC, we are currently at a crucial state, with many attempts at the 10k mark. All fundamentals considered, we do believe it is only a matter of time for the break to the upside. However, looking at miner behavior, we do think the consolidation would still need some time to play out. Historically, it has always been good accumulation opportunities after the weak miners’ sell off and capitulation. With only strong miners left, the miner selling pressure decreases. Recent data also shows a significant decrease in miners transferring BTC to exchange wallets after the halving, confirming the increasing miners’ short-term holding behavior.
How do miners react in large price drops / halving events?
--> Price drop / halving
--> Miner revenue decrease
--> Weak miners: sell more to maintain operational
--> Strong miners: holding and use existing cash for operational cost
--> Weak miners: not sustainable & capitulate
--> Only strong miners left (holding, not selling) --> mkt supply decrease
--> Price stabilize --> then rise
*credit to capriole_charles for the hash ribbon indicator.
For BTC, we are currently at a crucial state, with many attempts at the 10k mark. All fundamentals considered, we do believe it is only a matter of time for the break to the upside. However, looking at miner behavior, we do think the consolidation would still need some time to play out. Historically, it has always been good accumulation opportunities after the weak miners’ sell off and capitulation. With only strong miners left, the miner selling pressure decreases. Recent data also shows a significant decrease in miners transferring BTC to exchange wallets after the halving, confirming the increasing miners’ short-term holding behavior.
How do miners react in large price drops / halving events?
--> Price drop / halving
--> Miner revenue decrease
--> Weak miners: sell more to maintain operational
--> Strong miners: holding and use existing cash for operational cost
--> Weak miners: not sustainable & capitulate
--> Only strong miners left (holding, not selling) --> mkt supply decrease
--> Price stabilize --> then rise
*credit to capriole_charles for the hash ribbon indicator.
Note
The recent drop is actually very healthy. Market sentiment was a bit overextended with too many "to-the-moon" talks. It's a zero sum game, and in order to break the 10k mark, we do need to have more bearish view as fuels.Note
This is how we tie TA and FA together!
Note
There are two group of people in the crypto space: long-term investors and short-term speculators. One often overlooked fact is while short-term speculators dominate the actively daily traded BTC, long-term investors actually dominate the entire BTC holding. Understanding how these two groups contribute to BTC value and price separately is crucial in profiting in the long run. 
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